Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 15
Playoffs! Who Can You Trust?
(Posted December 16, 2021, updated for injuries and COVID, December 18, 2021)
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Welcome to Week 15, and to the Fantasy Football Playoffs! We don’t have any more NFL byes to deal with this week, but COVID has exploded and that plus plenty of injuries continues to force fantasy managers to scramble the jets. I can’t even begin to describe the minefield I had to navigate last week just to field a full lineup - it was the worst I’ve faced in 25+ years of playing this game - and I’m not out of the woods this week either. Yes, I’m fully aware that you can’t possibly care about my fantasy team and I’ll let you in on a secret - almost nobody likes to hear about other people’s fantasy teams, and especially their bad beat stories. So let’s move on.
If you’ve got a fantasy playoffs bye this week, kick back and enjoy. For many fantasy managers, this is an advance or go home week and your fantasy season is on the line. You want a lineup filled with players you can trust, and I’ll try to help you sort that out. Let’s Go!
IN A HURRY? LINK TO CHEATSHEET VERSION OF RIDES AND FADES: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-15-fantasy-cheatsheet
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT
Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 15:
Top 5:
ARI (31) @ DET
TB (29) vs. NO
DAL (28) @ NYG
KC (27.5) @ LAC
SF (27) vs. ATL
Bottom 5:
CAR (16.5) @ BUF
NYJ (16.5) @ MIA
DET (17) vs. CAR
NYG (17) vs. DAL
NO (17.5) @ TB
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT
The 3 teams with the longest current winning streaks in the NFL are New England (7), Kansas City (6) and Miami (5). It’s no surprise that they’re all playing great defense, and they’ve all been pretty bad matchups almost across the board in fantasy during those streaks. I wouldn’t completely avoid any of them, of course, but as with every defense that your players might face you want to pay attention to certain matchups in the run and pass game - for good and bad. We’ll highlight that as we go through the Rides and Fades.
***** SATURDAY INJURY AND COVID UPDATE *****
The NFL COVIDOCALYPSE is upon us and for the first time this year, the NFL has rescheduled games. LV@CLE was moved from Saturday to Monday, and each of WAS@PHI and SEA@LAR was moved to Tuesday. The NFL also revised the COVID protocols, and one result will be shortening the time needed for vaccinated players to return to active status after they test positive. So where does this leave fantasy managers, and their playoff lineups? Will those 2-day delays allow some players to get back on they field? Maybe, but obviously, if you’re counting on any players who are currently in the COVID protocol (or are otherwise questionable) and who play in a later game, you need to be careful, and to watch the news closely. The worst thing you can do is take a zero.
So I’ve got 2 pieces of advice: 1. If you’re waiting on a player who is playing in a later window and is currently uncertain to play, use the waiver wire to get someone you can pivot to, if you aren't already set in that regard. Having 8 teams playing on Monday-Tuesday makes that easier to do. 2. This week more than ever, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush - break ties (and things that aren’t quite ties) by playing guys in earlier games who you know will play.
Here are the key players currently on COVID inactive lists - but this isn’t the only impact for fantasy purposes. If the Browns are down to their 3rd string QB and are without 3 starting offensive lineman (which would be the case if they played today), that’s going to impact the rest of their offense.
B. Mayfield, K. Keenum, K. Hunt (OUT regardless), J. Landry, A. Hooper ** OBJ, D. Henderson ** T. Lockett, A. Collins ** J. Waddle, P. Lindsay ** T. Heinicke, K. Allen ** A. Robinson ** A. Mattison ** K. Toney ** E. Moore **
Injury Update:
QB: Lamar Jackson is officially questionable, but I’d be surprised if he plays, and wouldn't feel good about starting him if he does. Tyler Huntley should start in a tough matchup vs. the Packers. Jalen Hurts practiced in full Friday and is trending towards playing - but if you’re waiting on him, it’s a good idea to grab G. Minshew in case you need to pivot. Josh Allen is not on the injury report. Daniel Jones is OUT again.
RB:
OUT: D. Swift, D. Harris (R. Stevenson should see plenty of touches), E. Mitchell (J. Wilson gets another start, with Deebo getting extra caries again too), K. Hunt, C. Hyde
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: B. Bolden, J. Conner, L. Fournette
QUESTIONABLE: R. Burkhead, T. Pollard, JD McKissic
IN: M. Gaskin, M. Carter, M. Ingram
WR and TE:
OUT: D. Waller (F. Moreau gets another start), D. Hopkins, E. Sanders
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Ertz, J. Reynolds, D.J. Moore, MVS
QUESTIONABLE: L. Humphrey
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor, Tom Brady, George Kittle, or Cooper Kupp. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.
The Rides and Fades had another very strong week in Week 14. In particular, a bunch of sleepers came through: Big Ben, R. Penny, J. Guyton, K.J. Osborn, R. Anderson and G. Everett. Most of the Fades were the right calls too. Of course, there were misses, but all in all it was a strong week for the Pigskin Papers. Click here to look at last week’s preview (or the shorter cheatsheet version) and you can see all the predictions for last week: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-14 https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-14-fantasy-cheatsheet
One big caveat this week is the worsening COVID situation around the league, and the unknown of which players (and supporting players) will and won’t be available. It’s a much shakier landscape than in any previous week, and new names are going to show up on teams’ COVID lists. But all I can do is work with the information I have today. Hopefully this won’t all be irrelevant by Sunday. Here we go - the Week 15 Rides and Fades:
QB
Will Hurts be Back? If Yes, Ride Him.
Rides: The top 8 QBs for the week (Murray, Allen, Herbert, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Prescott and Stafford) are all very obvious starts and none have particularly troubling matchups, so I’m not going to spend any time on them. If you have one of them, start him, and trust him. I’ll focus on QBs outside of this group.
You can Trust Jimmy G. Really.
Guess who is the QB5 in fantasy over the last 6 weeks? Hint - he isn’t on the list of studs above. It’s Jimmy G. He’s been playing well, he’s got excellent (and healthy) weapons in the passing game, and the 49ers are rolling. This week he gets to face an Atlanta pass defense that has allowed 26 passing TDs (only 1 team has allowed more) and the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs on the season. The “experts” still aren’t giving Jimmy any love - he’s somehow ranked outside the top 15 this week. But not for me - he’s my QB Ride of the Week.
Jalen Hurts has had an extra week to get healthy, but it’s unclear if he will be ready for this week. If he can go, I’m assuming that means he can run (as opposed to how I feel about Lamar Jackson - see below) and I like (and trust) Hurts at home against a WFT team that’s been better of late, but has still allowed the most fantasy points to QBs on the season, and yeah, they’re the team that’s allowed the most TD passes this year (27, and counting). Look for Hurts to exploit them with both his arm and legs.
When Tua played the Jets in Week 12, he only threw 6 incompletions on 33 passes but didn’t have a huge fantasy day. It was fine. Not great, but fine. This week he faces them again, and he might need to throw a little more, with Miami’s top 4 RBs either on the COVID list (as of today) or trying to return from IR. The Jets are terrible - they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to QBs and their pass defense has gotten worse as the season has gone on. If you need Tua this week, go for it. I think he can be trusted to deliver a good result.
Another QB I’m riding this week is Kirk Cousins, at Chicago. After the latest Aaron Rodgers beatdown Sunday night, the Bears have now allowed 24 passing TDs on the season, with just 5 INTs. They’re bottom 5 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Meanwhile, Cousins is the QB 8 on the season. You heard that right, he’s a top 10 guy. Kirk has a perception problem for some reason - the experts almost never put him in the top 10, but he’s in my top 10 this week.
And finally, let’s hit on 2 sleepers from further down the rankings, for those in need at the position (hello, fellow Lamar owners) - Big Ben vs. the Titans, and Justin Fields vs. the Vikings - both are favorable matchups. Fields still makes his share of mistakes but he is really starting to use his legs, and to take shots downfield - he’s my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Taysom Hill is ranked just inside the top 10 this week. And yeah, I know, he can make huge plays with his legs and that gives him a nice floor. The Bucs are at home in this one and they owe the Saints. I don’t see Hill and his NFL-worst WR corps being able to exploit the Bucs’ secondary like others have. I don’t think it will be awful, but at his ranking Hill is my QB Fade of the Week. I don’t especially trust him this week, but can understand why many will start him.
If Lamar Jackson starts, I’d stay away if you can. A gimpy Lamar is not Lamar, is at risk of re-injury, and the Packers are an opportunistic defense that’s not a good matchup in any case. Plus, it’s not like Lamar was lighting it up before he got hurt. From Week 8 through Week 13, he was the QB14.
I love Joe Burrow’s game and his grit, but I don’t love the matchup at Denver, nor the fact that Burrow is making his first trip there. It’s not an easy place to play. The Broncos have been pretty stingy this year, allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to QBs, and barely more than 1 TD pass per game. I’m not predicting disaster, and if Burrow got you here I get why you’re riding with him. I’m just urging caution.
Three big-time stay-aways for me (and presumably, for every other analyst) this week: Carson Wentz vs. the Patriots (3rd ranked pass defense, 2nd fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs), Matt Ryan at the 49ers, and Cam Newton at the Bills, who’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs and the fewest TD passes on the season (10), plus Newton is in some sort of timeshare. If you’re even thinking about starting Newton this week, you might also want to think about finding another hobby.
RB
CEH is in a Great Spot Tonight
Rides:
Here is where it gets tricky - I love Elijah Mitchell this week at home against the Falcons, in a game the 49ers should dominate - but he didn’t play last week (knee, concussion) nor did he practice Wednesday and his status for Sunday is very much up in the air. He’s ranked outside the top 10 this week and it’s a smash spot for him if he can suit up. He’s my RB Ride of the Week (if he plays). [UPDATE - MITCHELL IS OUT]
And my second Ride is also a player whose status is up in the air - my old nemesis Myles Gaskin, who I’ve been wrong about most weeks this season. Gaskin is on the COVID list but went on early enough last week that he can hopefully clear by Sunday. The Dolphins are playing the Jets and you know what that means - they’re the most generous defense to RBs and have been for most of the season. And with several of his running mates more likely to miss the game with COVID he should get good volume - he had a very solid game against the Jets 3 weeks ago. His ranking of RB28 must reflect the uncertainty about his status. [UPDATE - GASKIN IS CLEARED AND WILL PLAY]
And…let’s go to another up in the air situation, just because this is so fun. Chase Edmonds was apparently very close to returning this past week. James Conner got hurt at the end of the Monday night game and is “day-to-day.” The Cards have an outstanding matchup at the Lions, who’ve allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. If Conner is active, he’s an obvious Start - too obvious for me to list. But if he isn’t, I like Edmonds in this one.
CEH has a great matchup this week against the Chargers, who have been generous to RBs all year, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. Yes, he shares snaps with Darrel Williams more than you’d like, but as the lead back, he should do well in this one.
I think we’re at the point where both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams can be started with confidence as RB2s. Denver can pound it. Ride them both at home against the Bengals.
The Steelers have been getting absolutely gashed on the ground. They’ve slid all the way down to the 30th ranked rush defense in the league and it’s been particularly bad more recently, as they’ve been giving up almost 200 yards per game on the ground over the last month. The Titans like to pound it as much as anyone and while they’re using multiple backs, I like D’Onta Foreman to roll up some yardage and maybe get a score in this one. Foreman is ranked in the low 20s this week and is my RB Sleeper of the Week.
A couple of other sleepers I like as flex options, if you’re needy: Rhamondre Stevenson (and if Damien Harris can’t go, he’s a must-start, even in a tough matchup at the Colts), Miles Sanders vs. the WFT, Rashaad Penny at the Rams, and Tony Pollard at the Giants (if he plays).
The Fades:
Zeke Elliott is clearly not 100% and has looked the opposite of explosive over the last few weeks. While the matchup at the Giants is a good one, I can see the Cowboys - who are going to win their division easily - easing up on his usage. I’d proceed with caution and he is my RB Fade of the Week.
I don’t like the matchup or the likely usage for A.J. Dillon this week - he’s a Fade.
I’m fading Devonta Freeman this week. The Packers are a top 10 run defense, Lamar might not play which would hurt the entire offense, and Latavius Murray still gets some goal line looks.
A few team fades this week - the Bills RBs (again) vs. Carolina, the Jets RBs at Miami, the Lions RBs against the Cardinals, and the Panthers RBs at Buffalo.
WR
Rides:
I’ll run something back from last week’s column, with barely any adjustment: The consensus top 10 WRs this week (Kupp, Adams, Jefferson, D. Johnson, Hill, Samuel, Godwin, S. Diggs, Lamb, Evans) is a murderers’ row - start them all with confidence. I’ll again limit this week’s WR Rides to players ranked outside the top 10.
[NOTE: the original version of this article discussed Jaylen Waddle (WR Ride of the Week), who has since been placed on the COVID-19 list]
[NOTE: the original version of this article discussed Tyler Lockett (WR Ride), who has since been placed on the COVID-19 list].
Brandon Aiyuk has seen at least 6 targets in 7 of the last 8 games, and while George Kittle has been the main man in the passing attack over the last 2 weeks, Aiyuk has been the leading WR and has seen almost twice as many targets as Deebo Samuel in the last 4 games they’ve played together - with Samuel getting some very productive carries of course. The Falcons’ defense is bad, and they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to WRs - this feels like a good spot for Aiyuk.
Hunter Renfrow is an almost every-week, high confidence ride for me at this point. He’s the WR7 (half PPR) over the past 5 weeks, and his target volume over that stretch is among the highest in the league.
A few more mid-range WRs I like as Rides, all ranked between 18-30 this week: Amari Cooper (@NYG), Van Jefferson (vs. SEA), Brandin Cooks (@JAC), Chase Claypool (vs. TEN) and Darnell Mooney (vs. ARI).
And let’s talk about some sleepers. Once again, there are a bunch that I like. All of these WRs are ranked outside the top 30 this week and while none of these players can be completely trusted, I think you can feel decently good about starting any one of them if you need them: A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, Gabe Davis, Allen Lazard, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Green is my WR Sleeper of the Week - I like him to benefit the most (for now, at least) from the absence of Nuk Hopkins.
Fades:
Michael Pittman has cooled off after his hot start. He hasn’t topped 80 yards or scored a TD in his last 4 games, and the Patriots have been playing lockdown D - they’re the 3rd ranked pass defense in the league and have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to WRs - Pittman is my WR Fade of the Week.
D.J. Moore has a lot of things working against him this week - his own team’s messy QB situation, Cam’s inability to throw downfield, and a matchup with the Bills, the NFL’s #1 ranked pass defense. The Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs for pretty much the entire season. Moore is a Fade.
Jerry Jeudy has been a regular entry in the Fades, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind. Jeudy hasn’t scored a TD all year, nor has he exceeded 6 catches or 80 yards in a game all year. The Broncos are a run-first team and their backs also get lots of targets. It’s time to accept the reality that Jeudy is a fantasy bust this year.
Terry McLaurin is probably going to see a lot of Darius Slay on Sunday, and his QB has a bad thumb. McLaurin is slumping badly, with just 7 catches over his last 3 games including a goose egg last week. This isn’t the week he breaks out of it.
A few more easy Fades for this week: Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson, and Kenny Golladay. Imagine seeing these 3 an every-week fade list back in August. Also, avoid the Saints WRs like you’d avoid a crowd of coughing people.
TE
Rides:
Keep Riding Dawson Knox
Here is where it really gets tough. And let me preface this section by saying that I think Travis Kelce (coming off back-to-back games with 3 catches for less than 40 yards) is due for a very big game, and the matchup with the Chargers bodes well for that. Of course, Kelce is too obvious a name. But outside of this top 4 of obvious names: Kittle, Kelce, Gronk, Andrews - it’s hard to find players to trust. But I’ll try.
Dawson Knox doesn’t have a great matchup with week, but it’s good enough and he’s been on a nice roll lately. He’s my TE Ride of the Week.
I think this is a decent spot for Zach Ertz, who hasn’t done much the last few weeks. Hopkins is out, the Lions are bad, Conner might be out…Ertz has a decent shot to see more targets this week, and maybe get a score.
I’ll keep riding Pat Friermuth. The Titans aren’t a favorable matchup (they’ve allowed the 5th fewest points to the position), but Ben looks for him near the goal line and he’s scored 6 TDs in his last 7 games.
Mike Gesicki is a bit boom or bust, but we’re talking about TEs and he’s got a good chance to do some damage in a plus matchup with the Jets, who’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to TEs. He had 5 catches in the first meeting, but didn’t score. I’ll ride him with at least a decent degree of confidence.
And let’s hit on some sleepers: Ricky Seals-Jones at the Eagles (who’ve allowed the most TDs (11) and most fantasy points to TEs this year), Gerald Everett at the Rams, and Brevin Jordan at the Jaguars. The volume has been low but Jordan has scored in 2 of the last 3 games, and it’s a decent matchup. Jordan is my TE Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Kyle Pitts has appeared in this TE Fades section more than any player this year. And I guess he has done a little better the last 2 weeks. No, he still hasn’t topped 65 yards in a game since October 24, or scored a TD since October 10. But he does have 9 catches over his last 2 games. He’s still being ranked every week by the ”experts” as if he’s a high-end TE1. What am I missing? He isn’t that, and he hasn’t been that for almost 2 solid months. On top of that, this week’s opponent is the 49ers, who’ve allowed the 2nd fewest yards and the 4th fewest fantasy points to TEs. Pitts is again my TE Fade of the Week.
I’m not sure if T.J. Hockenson will be back this week (hand), but if he is I’d stay away. The Cardinals have covered TEs really well, allowing just 2 TDs and the 3rd fewest fantasy points on the season.
I’m not sure where Noah Fant has gone. Like the Denver receivers, there’s just too little consistency or volume. Plus, Albert O has eaten into his role. Fant hasn’t scored or gone over 60 yards since Week 6. He’s a Fade.
On paper, this looks like a decent week for Dalton Schultz. But since Michael Gallup returned, his role in the offense has diminished. He’s only seen 8 targets over the last 2 games. If you have him you probably don’t have a better option, but if you start him you’re basically hoping for a score.
A few more situations I’d avoid this week: C.J. Uzomah at Denver (the Broncos have only allowed 1 TD catch by a TE all year), any Colts TE (the Patriots have allowed the fewest catches, yards and fantasy points to the position), and Tyler Conklin at the Bears.
Good luck to all in the Fantasy Playoffs. Check back with the Pigskin Papers next Tuesday for the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly Fantasy Recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
