Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 11
The City of Atlanta Will be Hosting a Track Meet on Sunday
(Published November 17, 2022, updated for Injuries and Weather Sunday Morning November 20, 2022, 9 a.m.)
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Welcome to Week 11 - The fantasy season is hitting the home stretch before the playoffs, and I’m sure a lot of you badly need a win this week. This is a tough week - injuries are again piling up, and the 4 teams on bye (see below) are loaded with weekly starts in fantasy. Fantasy owners throughout the land might be having trouble cobbling together a decent lineup this week. I’m here to help, so let’s jump right in.
***In a rush? CHEATSHEET VERSION of the Rides, Fades and Sleepers is here: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-cheatsheet-week-11 .
WEEK 11 BYES: Dolphins, Seahawks, Bucs, Jaguars
***** SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER AND INJURY UPDATE *****
WEATHER REPORT:
8 of the 13 Sunday and Monday games will be played inside domed stadiums, including CLE@BUF which has been moved to Ford Field in Detroit, to avoid a major winter storm.
4 games will feature cold temps and moderate winds, with stronger gusts: CAR@BAL, DET@NYG, CIN@PIT and NYJ@NE
INJURY REPORT:
Players ALREADY DECLARED OUT for Week 11: P.J. Walker, K. Herbert (IR), M. Ingram, McKissic (IR), Chase, Kupp (IR), Jeudy, Hamler, JuJu, Hardman (IR), C. Davis, Goedert (IR), Ertz (IR)
No INJURY designation (will play): Stafford, McCoy, D. Harris, Landry
Questionable, EXPECTED TO PLAY: L. Jackson, E. Elliott, D. Adams, M. Williams, M. Brown (MNF), M. Andrews
GTD: K. Murray (MNF), G. Edwards, K. Allen (SNF), D. Hopkins (MNF), G. Everett, Njoku
*******
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: T1. BAL (28.5) T1. KC (28.5) 3. ATL (26.75) T4. BUF (26) T4. PHI (26) T4. SF (26)
Bottom 5: 1. CAR (15.5) T2. ARI (17.5) T2. CLE (17.5) 4. NYJ (17.75) 5. HOU (18.25)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. PHI 3. BUF 4. CIN 5. HOU
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DET 2. LV 3. MIA 4. KC 5. TEN
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. NE 3. TEN 4. TB 5. MIN
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. CLE 3. LAC 4. CHI 5. CAR
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. IND 3. NYG 4. NE 5. HOU
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PIT 2. ATL 3. TEN 4. MIN 5. KC
Top 5 vs TE: 1. NO 2. BUF 3. DAL 4. WAS 5. LAR
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. DET 4. MIA 5. LV
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Mahomes, Ekeler, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers had a pretty lackluster week in Week 10. QB Ride of the Week Justin Fields did not disappoint, but some of the other Rides of the Week did. Overall, I got more right than wrong, but you’re paying all this money for better than that, right? Here is the Week 10 column for those who want to see the results: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-10 .
On to Week 11, the Rides, Fades and Sleepers:
Dany Dimes Can Help You This Week
QB - The top 5 QBs in the consensus rankings this week are Mahomes, Allen, Fields, Hurts, and Jackson. All are in smash spots, and all are too obvious for this exercise. If you have one of them, enjoy the bounty.
Rides and Sleepers:
Daniel Jones, come on down! You’e my QB Ride of the Week. Jones has been good this year - he’s the QB13 on the season on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis, and he’s really cut down on the turnovers. This week, Jones will be at home, facing a Lions’ defense that’s at or near the bottom in most statistical categories, including these 3 gems: They’ve allowed the most FPPG to QBs, the second most rushing yards to QBs, and the most rushing TDs to QBs. Justin Fields just shredded them for almost 150 yards rushing. Jones isn’t Fields, but he can run, and his receiving weapons are a little healthier now. This game should be high-scoring. Jump in on Jones.
It hasn’t been as pretty as expected for Justin Herbert this year, in large part due to injuries to his WRs and his O-line. I’ll ride him this week against a Chiefs’ defense that can be had - they’ve given up 19 TD passes and only have 3 picks on the entire season - that’s the worst ratio in the league. They’ve also given up the 4th most FPPG to QBs. Herbert has 9 passing TDs in his last 3 games vs. KC, and in Week 2 of this season he amassed over 300 yards and 3 TDs at Arrowhead. This is a good matchup and the Bolts will need to put up plenty of points against the Chiefs.
Moving down the rankings, 2 QBs I like this week as QB2s in a Superflex or as bye week fill-ins are Jimmy G in Mexico City against the Cardinals, and (gulp) Russell Wilson vs. the Raiders. These are both plus matchups against sub-par defenses, and I won’t be surprised to see either of these 2 with a top 10 finish for the week.
My QB Sleeper of the Week is Marcus Mariota, who is coming off a petty bad showing at the Panthers last Thursday. One more outing like that and the rumblings for Desmond Ridder will get pretty loud. But there’s good news for Mariota - Da Bears are coming to town and since they gutted their defense, it’s been a blank-show. In their last 3 games the Bears have given up 49, 35, and 31 points. Hey, wait, they’re improving! Not really. Mariota should have some success through the air and plenty on the ground, and this game has the highest total of the week (50.5).
Fades:
This is easy. Derek Carr is my QB Fade of the Week. The Broncos are just plain nasty. Yes, they gave up some yards and TDs last week, but that was an anomaly, and they’re especially stingy at home. They’ve only allowed 6 passing TDs on the season, which is 3 better than anyone else. They’ve allowed the fewest passing yards of any team in the league, and the fewest FPPG to QBs. Carr has been up and down, and he’s without 2 of his top targets from last season. As I said, this one is easy.
I’ll fade Kyler Murray (assuming he plays). I don’t know how much he’ll be able to run on a gimpy hamstring, and if he isn’t running, he isn’t the same weapon, either in real football or fantasy. Throw in the 49ers defense, and I’ll look elsewhere. They’re 7th best against QBs.
Taylor Heinicke looked good on Monday night, and even though Carson Wentz is ready to return, he’s staying under center, at least for now. You might think the Texans are an easy matchup for QBs. They aren’t. They’ve actually been pretty stingy - in part because they’re so awful against the run. It’s a funnel defense. They’ve allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs, and I could see the Commanders having a bit of a letdown on a short week.
It’s a tough bye week, so some of you might be scraping the barrel for streamers. Here are some choices you might be considering, but that I’d try hard to avoid this week: Kenny Pickett vs. the Bengals, Matt Ryan vs. the Eagles, Ryan Tannehill at the Packers, both QBs in the Jets-Patriots game, and Jacoby Brissett at the Bills (who am I kidding - you aren’t considering Brissett).
C-Patt Will Factor Into the Ground Game Bonanza in CHI@ATL
RB - The top 5 RBs in the consensus rankings this week are Barkley, Ekeler, Henry, CMC and J. Taylor. They’re all too obvious and off-limits for this exercise, but man, they’ve got some nice matchups. I’d love to make any one of them my RB Ride of the Week. Enjoy the fun…
Rides and Sleepers:
C. Patterson is my RB Ride of the Week. He’s ranked outside the top 20 for the week, so this is a bit of a stretch, but looking at the RBs ranked ahead of him, outside of that monster top 5 listed above, there are a lot of tough matchups. Patterson has a favorable matchup with the Bears, who’ve allowed the 4th most FPPG to RBs, and a whopping 12 rushing TDs to the position. Yes, he shares (including with his QB, who runs), but he’s still the lead dog and there will be plenty of points in this one.
I think you can fire up both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson this week, at the Texans. The snap share last week was almost 50-50, with Robinson getting almost double the carries and Gibson getting more passing looks. Both scored last week. Robinson is more like an RB2 and Gibson more of a flex, but again, the Texans defense is so generous to RBs that I think you can play them both. The Texans have allowed the most carries, yards, rushing TDs, and FPPG to the position. They’re that bad.
David Montgomery is worth riding this week, at Atlanta. I haven’t listed him in this column much this year, and Khalil Herbert has definitely eaten into his production, as has Fields over the last month. Still, the Falcons are a generous defense, Herbert was put on IR, and I think Monty will surprise this week. This game could have 400+ combined rushing yards.
I’ll ride Tony Pollard again. Zeke Elliott will probably return for this one, but how the snaps will be divided between a recovering Zeke and a red-hot Pollard is hard to predict. I’ll guess that Pollard gets more of the work, and they’ll need some explosive plays from him to keep up with the Vikings.
Fire up Devin Singletary, vs. the Browns. It’s a good matchup and I can see an angry Bills team running it up on Cleveland, which just got shredded by Miami’s backfield last week.
The Chiefs have struggled running the ball and if last week is an indication, they’re going to keep trying to make Isiah Pacheco their lead guy. CEH logged 4 snaps and 0 touches last week. As far as I know, he’s fully healthy. Ouch. The Chargers have been a weak defense vs. the run for 2 seasons now, and they’ve allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to RBs on the season along with the 3rd most FPPG. I think Pacheco can take advantage. Don’t expect a huge game, but this is about opportunity and you could do worse at RB3 or flex. Pacheco is my RB Sleeper of the Week.
2 more sleepers for you: Elijah Mitchell vs. the Cardinals and Gus Edwards vs. the Panthers [SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Edwards is a GTD].
Fades:
James Conner is my RB Fade of the Week. He’s coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, but be careful this week. I think the Cardinals will struggle in this one, and the 49ers are the #1 fantasy defense vs. RBs.
This one is tough, because I think he’s a great player and he’s going to get plenty of touches, but I’ll fade Aaron Jones. You’re obviously starting him if you have him, but Tennessee is not a defense you want to start RBs against if you can avoid it. The Titans have only allowed one rushing TD to an RB all season, and only the 49ers and Patriots have allowed fewer FPPG to the position.
You guessed it, I’ll fade both James Robinson and Michael Carter at New England. The Pats are very stingy to RBs and have also only allowed one rushing TD to the position all season. Plus, these backs are in a timeshare. Look elsewhere if you can.
D’Andre Swift shouldn’t be in any lineups until he gets at least a semblance of a normal workload. He only logged 7 touches last week, and hasn’t had more than 10 in a game since returning from injury.
I wouldn’t be too trusting of Ezekiel Elliott this week. Wait a week if you can.
A few more RB Fades for you: CEH at the Chargers (just in case you’re thinking about trying him again), Darrell Henderson at the Saints, and Kenyan Drake vs. the Panthers.
Deebo’s been Quiet…Too Quiet
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
Tee Higgins is my WR Ride of the Week. The Steelers defense got a big boost with the return of T.J. Watt, but it’s still weak in the back end, and with no Chase once again, Higgins should be busy. The Steelers have allowed the most FPPG to WRs on the season and are tied for the most TD catches allowed to the position (13). Higgins is in a smash spot.
We haven’t gotten a big Deebo game in a while. He isn’t doing what he did last year, nor is he getting the rushing work. Still, I’ll ride him this week against the Cardinals, in what should be a very good game for the SF offense.
Moving down the rankings, a few mid-range WR2s I like this week are Darnell Mooney (the Falcons have allowed the most yards and second most FPPG to WRs, and the Bears have come to life), Courtland Sutton vs. the Raiders, Brandon Aiyuk, alongside Deebo, and Tyler Boyd alongside Higgins.
How is Kadarius Toney ranked outside the top 30 this week? The Chiefs are very banged up at WR, so Toney should see his biggest workload to date. He’s electric with the ball in his hands, and Mahomes will know how to find him.
While we’re here, Christian Watson is also ranked outside the top 30, and while I’m not a fan of chasing performance, the Packers are also very banged up at WR, they’ll struggle to run on the Titans, and he’s a big play waiting to happen.
Nico Collins is my WR Sleeper of the Week. I like the Texans in this game, and the Commanders are vulnerable against the pass. They rank in the bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to WRs, and with Brandin Cooks still sulking, Collins has a nice opportunity.
Here are a few more sleepers, if you need to dig deep: Drake London vs. the Bears, Darius Slayton vs. the Lions, and Michael Gallup at the Vikings.
Fades:
Diontae Johnson is my WR Fade of the Week. It’s hard to believe how inefficient his targets have been, in terms of translating into fantasy points. I don’t see that changing this week vs. the Bengals, who’ve been stingy to both perimeter and slot WRs. It’s just not happening for Johnson this season. He’s the WR42 on the year in Half PPR, hasn’t scored once, and I think it’s safe to keep him on your bench.
Michael Pittman will benefit greatly from the return of Matt Ryan, but I don’t think it will be this week. The Eagles are a tough pass defense (top 10 in fewest FPPG to WRs) and I think he’s going to see a lot of Darius Slay. Plus, he’s becoming more and more of a short-area target. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, and unless he finds the end zone on Sunday he’s likely to disappoint. I’d avoid him this week if you have better options.
D.J. Moore is a Fade for me this week. Baker Mayfield is back under center for the Panthers and from weeks 1-5, when Mayfield was the starter, Moore was the WR47 (Half PPR) and was basically unstartable. I’ll stay away.
I’ll fade both of Amari Cooper and DPJ at the Bills, who got roasted by Justin Jefferson last week, but hey, he’s Justin Jefferson. I think this is going to be a long day for Cleveland, as the Bills flex their muscles.
No, I’m not starting Allen Robinson at the Saints, even with Cooper Kupp on IR. Matthew Stafford may not be back for this one, and this is a game I’m mostly avoiding for fantasy, period.
I’ll fade Devonta Smith at the Colts. Indy is tough on WRs generally and especially #2 WRs. They’ve very quietly allowed the second fewest FPPG to the positions and just 5 TD catches to WRs all year, which only trails the Broncos.
Along the same lines, I’ll fade Mack Hollins at the Broncos. There are a lot of better WR3 and flex option out there this week.
Can Kmet Keep it Going in Atlanta?
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
My single worst call of the week last week, and one of my worst on the season, was Greg Dulcich as my TE Ride of the Week. One catch for 11 yards, on 4 targets. Way to make me kook bad, Greg. I’m back for more! I think I was just a week early. Let’s run it back at home against the Raiders, who’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to TEs, including 6 TDs on the season. I think he’ll find pay dirt this week.
George Kittle is an obvious name, but he hasn’t been a steady producer this year so he qualifies as a Ride. Another year, another case of the Cardinals not being able to cover TEs. They’ve allowed 100 more passing yards to TEs than any other team - that’s a huge amount. And once you remove the ridiculous Taysom Hill game (3 RuTDS, 1 PaTD) from Seattle’s TE stats, the Cardinals have allowed the most FPPG to TEs, and it’s not that close. As for Kittle, he’s had at least 90 yards in each of his last 2 games against the Cardinals. This is a green light week for big George.
Cole Kmet has back-to-back games with 2 TDs. Obviously, he’s not keeping up that pace, but after disappointing for most of his first 2 1/2 seasons, here we are, in what is suddenly a flamethrower of an offense. Ride Kmet at the Falcons, who can’t cover anyone.
I’ll go with Isaiah Likely as my TE Sleeper of the Week. Mark Andrews should be back, but I don’t think that relegates Likely to a pure backup role, and I also don’t know if Andrews will get his usual number of snaps and routes. I expect to see both of them on the field at the same time more than we have before.
Fades:
Can I just start cutting and pasting Kyle Pitts as my TE Fade of the Week? He’s still being ranked as a top 10 TE by the experts. Why? What have they seen? And while the Bears’ defense is awful, they’ve actually been tough on TEs. Is this week the big Pitts breakout? Could be, but the way this offense runs, it’s hard to see that ever happening. They’ll be able to run it on Chicago, and even if they fall behind, they’ll still run a lot. Sit Pitts down. It’s tough, I know. I overpaid for him too.
Fade Hunter Henry vs. the Jets. It hasn’t been a good year for Henry, and the Jets are one of 2 teams that still hasn’t allowed a TE to find the end zone this season.
Juwan Johnson has been en fuego. I don’t like that to continue against the Rams, who’ve been very tough on TEs all year (top 5 in fewest FPPG allowed, and just 2 TDs).
Trey McBride played almost every snap after Zach Ertz went down, and he’s definitely going to have opportunities. I’d wait a week though. The 49ers are another one of the top defenses vs. the position.
PK and D/ST: See the Week 11 Waivers column for recommendations at these positions: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-11 .
Good luck to all in Week 11!
DH
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