Pigskin Papers: 2022 Fantasy Preview Week 14
This College Reunion is Going Very Well!
(Published December 8, 2022, updated for injuries and weather Sunday, December 11, 2022, @10 a.m.)
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Welcome to Week 14! For most of you, this is the final week before the start of the fantasy playoffs, and wait, what’s this? SIX teams are on bye this week? What the %$@!? Clearly, the NFL doesn’t care about fantasy football. But you do. Maybe a little too much. So let’s jump in and look at this week’s slate of matchups. I’ll try to help you break on through to the next phase of the 2022 fantasy season.
WEEK 14 BYES: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Washington
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SUNDAY MORNING INJURY AND WEATHER UPDATE:
WEATHER REPORT: Weather won’t be a factor in most locations, but there are a couple of games that could be impacted by Mother Nature:
NYJ@BUF - This is the game with the largest possible weather impact. A wintry mix of precipitation is expected, with temperatures hovering right around freezing.
PHI@NYG - There is about a 40-45% chance of rain throughout the day, with temperatures in the low 40s.
BAL@PIT - Temperatures will be in the high 30s/low 40s, with a slight chance of rain.
TB@SF - Some intermittent rain is possible throughout the afternoon.
INJURY UPDATE:
Players already declared OUT for Week 14: Jimmy G., C. Sutton, B. Cooks, N. Collins, H. Hurst
Players with no injury designation (will play): J. Mixon, M. Carter, J. Waddle, M. Williams, D. Njoku, C. Boswell
Players not expected to play: L. Jackson, K. Walker and D. Dallas, D. Harris, J. Meyers, R. Moore, K. Toney
Players expected to play: Lawrence, L. Fournette, J.K. Dobbins, D.K. Metcalf, T. Higgins, D. Samuel, A. Cooper, J. Jeudy, D. Johnson, Q. Watkins
GTD: S. Barkley
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TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: 1. DAL (30.75) 2. MIA (27.75) 3. DET (27) T4. BUF (26.75) T4. CIN (26.75)
Bottom 5: 1. HOU (13.75) 2. TB (16.75) T3. BAL (17.25) T3. NYJ (17.25) 5. DEN (17.5)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. PHI 2. DEN 3. HOU 4. SF 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DET 2. ARI 3. TEN 4. LV 5. KC
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. NE 3. TEN 4. BAL 5. TB
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. LAC 3. SEA 4. CLE 5. CHI
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. IND 3. NYJ 4. HOU 5. PHI
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. TEN 2. PIT 3. KC 4. MIN 5. ATL
Top 5 vs TE: 1. BUF 2. DAL 3. WAS 4. NO 5. SF
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. MIA 4. DET 5. TB
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, Ekeler, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a very good showing in Week 13, with more winners than losers. In particular, our Fades of the Week (Brady, Kamara, Sutton, and Hunter Henry) looked absolutely perfect until Brady salvaged a decent day in the final 5 minutes of the final game of the week. Here is the Week 13 column for those who want to see the results: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-fantasy-preview-week-13 .
The #5 and 6 picks from 2020 are Ready to Face Off
Week 14 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
QB: The elite fantasy options for Week 14: Hurts, Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. I’ll start the analysis below them.
Rides and Sleepers:
Justin Herbert was my QB Ride of the Week last week, and he delivered a solid if unspectacular outing (QB9 for the week). I’m back for more. This week’s opponent (Miami) has been very generous to QBs all year, allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the position. Last week, Mr. Irrelevant from the 2022 Draft stepped in and had success against them, throwing for more than 200 yards and 2 TDs. This game figures to be high scoring, and Herbert should be in line for a productive evening in an entertaining Sunday nighter. He’s my QB Ride of the Week.
I’ll ride Tua in the same game. Tua and Herbert are linked, since Miami drafted Tua one spot before the Chargers took Herbert, back in 2020. The Chargers were strong against the pass early in the season but have faltered of late, allowing opposing QBs multiple TD passes (and at least 20 fantasy points) in 3 straight games. For the season, they’re in the bottom half of the league in FPPG allowed to QBs. Again, this game should high scoring, and Tua has the weapons to stress any defense. The one caveat here is that both of Miami’s starting tackles didn’t play in Week 13. If they’re both out again, I’m a little worried about LA’s edge rushers having a field day.
Ride Derek Carr. The matchup at the Rams is no longer scary - in fact, it’s somewhat favorable, and Carr is on too big of a heater to ignore. He’s put up at least 20 fantasy points in 5 straight. It’s like craps - ride the hot shooter.
Moving outside the top 10, I’ll ride both Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff in what should be another of the week’s highest scoring games. Goff was a Ride last week and he delivered, finishing as the QB4 for the week. I told you last week about Home Jared vs. Road Jared - Home Jared averages a shade under 20 FPPG and has 3 top 10 weekly finishes on the season. This week we again get Home Jared. The Vikings are in the bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to QBs, and the Lions now have everyone healthy - even Jameson Williams should play in this one. As for Cousins, he faces the defense that’s allowed the most FPPG to QBs on the season. He’s also had a ton of past success against this defense. In his last 5 games in Detroit, Cousins is averaging just over 300 yards passing and 3 TDs per game, with 0 picks. Get the popcorn!
Six teams are on bye this week, so some of you may need to dig deeper, and especially in Superflex leagues. Two sleepers to consider are Mac Jones at the Cardinals and Ryan Tannehill vs. the Jaguars. This is more about the matchups than anything else - the Cardinals are tied for the most passing TDs allowed on the season (24), and have allowed the second most FPPG to QBs. The Jaguars just got sliced up by Jared Goff and on the season have allowed the 7th most FPPG to QBs. I’d feel better about Tannehill if I knew Treylon Burks was going to play, but I’ll still ride him as my QB Sleeper of the Week. And if you’re truly desperate and like living on the edge, or if you need someone very cheap in DFS, think about Sam Darnold at the Seahawks.
Fades:
I ran back my QB Ride of the Week, and I’m doing the same with Tom Brady, who is my QB Fade of the Week once again this week, and for probably the 4th or 5th time this season. Almost all of those calls have hit, and for 55 minutes this past week, it looked like another winning ticket. 2022 has been a struggle for the GOAT. Despite all the passing yards, he only has 3 top 10 weekly finishes on the season, and it’s very unlikely that he’s going to get one at the 49ers this week. Yes, Miami beat them for 2 long passing scores last week, but the Bucs don’t have that kind of speed. The 49ers have allowed just 11 passing TDs on the season and the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs. This is a nasty defense. Stay away.
I’m fading Daniel Jones against the Eagles. Jones has been a very pleasant surprise this season in fantasy - he’s the QB9 for the year and he’s made my Rides list multiple times. Not this week. The Eagles’ defense leads the NFL in INTs with 15, and they’ve allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest FPPG to QBs. They also haven’t allowed a rushing TD to a QB, and that’s where Jones butters his bread. Jones has limited weapons at his disposal and I expect the NY offense to struggle in this one.
Speaking of struggling, hopefully you listened to me last week and waited to deploy Deshaun Watson. He hadn’t played in an NFL game in close to 700 days and it showed. I’d wait another week. The Bengals have allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs and just did a pretty solid job against Patrick Mahomes. They’re at home again, they owe the Browns for the loss in Cleveland last month, and I think Watson will struggle for the second straight week.
Tyler Huntley had some solid fantasy outings in 2021 after Lamar was lost to injury, so it’s tempting to fire him up this week. His rushing prowess gives him a nice floor. I’ll stay away for this week. The Steelers were a favorable matchup for QBs for the first half of the season but not any more. T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick are healthy and this defense is back to what we expected. Only the Eagles have more INTs on the year than Pittsburgh, which has 14. They’ve held their last 2 opponents under 20 points and I expect a long day for Huntley and the Ravens against an ascending Pittsburgh team. The Ravens suffer from a lack of playmakers, and that’s becoming more evident each week.
Don’t you dare start Mike White at Buffalo.
The Cowboys’ 1-2 Punch Should Roll Against the Lowly Texans
RB: The elite options for Week 14 are Ekeler, Jacobs, CMC, and Henry, and I’ll start the analysis below that quartet.
Rides and Sleepers:
Dalvin Cook is my RB Ride of the Week. In the first matchup between these teams, way back in Week 3, Cook had a very solid game, with just under 100 yards rushing and a TD. He was barely involved in the passing game in that one, but I think that’ll change this week, in what could be a shootout. The big Dalvin game is long overdue.
If Joe Mixon returns from his concussion this week, fire him up. The Browns have been an awful run defense for most of the season - they rank near the bottom in almost every statistic and have allowed the 4th most FPPG to RBs. And if Mixon can’t go, ride Samaje Perine with confidence. [UPDATE: Mixon is not on the final injury report and will play]
Last week I rode both Zeke and Tony Pollard, and it paid off as they combined for almost 200 yards from scrimmage and 3 rushing TDs. Run it back! This week, the Cowboys face the Texans, and they’re favored by…wait for it…16 points! That’s a college football spread, folks. The battle of Texas figures to be a bloodbath. Meanwhile, the Texans have been a dream matchup for RBs this season. They’ve yielded the most carries, rushing yards, total yards, rushing TDs and FPPG to RBs. Dallas is lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine and there should be plenty to go around for Zeke and Pollard in this one.
D’Andre Swift finally makes the Rides list! Why? Usage. Opportunity is at least half the battle in fantasy football, and for the first time since he returned from injury over a month ago, Swift got heavy usage last week, to the tune of 18 total touches. That was his biggest workload since week 1. Swift should be heavily involved in the passing game this week - fire him up.
Moving down the rankings, I’ll roll with D’Onta Foreman, in a favorable matchup at the Seahawks. Foreman has 2 top 10 weekly finishes since the CMC trade, both against weaker defenses. This week, he gets a Seattle defense that’s allowed the third most FPPG to RBs. Even Cam Akers scored twice on them last week. And you know how I feel about Akers.
WIth 6 teams on bye, I’m sure lots of you need to dig deep at RB this week. My RB Sleeper of the Week is Raheem Mostert. Jeff Wilson has been leading the way for the Miami backfield since he was acquired from the 49ers, but he had only one carry last week to Mostert’s 7. This is a guessing game, and I don’t like those, but the matchup is intriguing. The Chargers have been awful against the run since the start of the 2021 season. They’ve allowed the second most rushing yards and FPPG to RBs this season.
A couple of other sleepers I like this week: James Cook against the Jets (he had season highs in carries, touches, and total yards last week and appears to be slowly taking over the lead role in the Buffalo backfield), Chuba Hubbard at the Seahawks, and Jerrick McKinnon at the Broncos (full PPR only).
Fades:
Leonard Fournette is my RB Fade of the Week. He’s got way too many things working against him this week: He’s now in a full timeshare with Rachaad White, he hasn’t topped 14 carries and only has 1 top 15 weekly finish in his last 5 games, and the 49ers are the #1 defense against RBs. Get this - in addition to allowing the fewest FPPG to RBs, they’ve yielded the fewest rushing yards to RBs by a full 100 yards over the next best defense. No thanks, Lenny.
I’ll fade James Conner against the Patriots. Conner is very TD-reliant for his fantasy production, and recently, he’s delivered for his fantasy managers, with 4 scores in his last 4 games. This is strength vs. strength, as the Patriots lead the league with just 3 total TDs allowed to RBs on the year (2 rushing, 1 receiving), and they’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to the position. Pass.
I’ll fade Jeff Wilson at the Chargers. It’s a great matchup, but as noted above it’s a guessing game as to which Dolphin RB gets the bulk of the work, so starting Wilson after last week’s one carry performance is risky. I’m betting on Mostert this week. Like I said, guessing is no fun.
A quartet of fades: Bam Knight at the Bills (it’s a bad matchup, and it’s hard to trust the usage with Michael Carter possibly returning), Lat Murray vs. the Chiefs, Gus Edwards at the Steelers, and Isiah Pacheco at the Broncos.
There are Some Things You Simply Cannot Defend
WR: The elite for Week 14: Jefferson, Hill, Adams, and Diggs. The analysis starts below them.
Rides and Sleepers:
I’ll go with De’Andre Hopkins as my WR Ride of the Week. Since his return from suspension, he hasn’t had a weekly finish outside the top 15, and he’s averaging a shade over 10 targets per game. The Patriots were a very tough pass defense early in the season but they’ve been yielding TDs of late, including 1 each to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis last week. The Cardinals will struggle to run the ball. and I expect Hopkins to be extremely busy this week.
ARSB was my WR Ride of the Week last Week and he hit big with 11 catches for 114 yards and 2 TDs, good for WR3 for the week. He’s a pretty obvious name for sure, but let’s run it back against a Vikings’ pass defense that can be had, and that’s allowed the most catches and 4th most FPPG to WRs. ARSB suffered an ankle sprain late in the first half when these teams met in Week 3, but was on his way to a pretty big day.
A few more top 15 options that I like this week: both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at home in a neutral matchup against the Panthers, and Christian Kirk in a favorable matchup at Tennessee.
Moving further down the rankings into the 20s, give me D.J. Moore at Seattle, Josh Palmer vs. Miami, and Jakobi Meyers at the Cardinals. All have favorable matchups. [UPDATE: Meyers is not expected to play]
Let’s move outside the top 30. It’s rare that Jerry Jeudy makes my Rides list, and to be honest it’s rare for any Bronco. They’ve scored 14 TDs on the season, total. Let that number sink in - this is Week 14, folks. But with Courtland Sutton likely out this week, and the Chiefs’ defense on tap, I’ll ride Jeudy in Week 14. Kansas City has allowed the second most TD catches (15) and the third most FPPG to receivers, and the Broncos are going to be chasing points. Ugh, I feel slightly dirty.
Sleeper time! My WR Sleeper of the Week is Zay Jones. And yes, I’m assuming Trevor Lawrence will play this week. Jones put up a dud last week, but he’s had a number of good weekly finishes of late and the matchup at the Titans is a very good one - they’ve allowed the most FPPG to WRs.
A few more sleepers for you to consider, if you’re in need: Mack Hollins at the Rams, Nico Collins at the Cowboys, D.J. Chark vs. the Vikings, Adam Thielen in the same game, Tyler Boyd vs. the Browns, and Michael Gallup vs. the Texans. OK, it’s more than just a few. [UPDATE: Collins is OUT for this week].
Fades:
Mike Evans is my WR Fade of the Week. And yes, I’m aware that so far, my fades of the week are all from the same team. Evans is in a major slump, and the 49ers aren’t going to make it easy for him to break that slump. Evans caught 14 TD passes last year (second only to Cooper Kupp), but he hasn’t scored a TD since week 4, and hasn’t topped 60 yards in his last 4 games. It’s worrying.
Darius Slayton (Big Play Slay) has really come on of late, but I think another Big Play Slay named Darius is going to make his life difficult this Sunday. The Eagles have allowed the 4th fewest passing yards and 5th fewest FPPG to WRs on the season. Fade Slayton this week.
I’ll fade JuJu at the Broncos. Denver has been extremely stingy to WRs all year (fewest yards, second fewest TDs (6), and fewest FPPG allowed to the position), and I think Mahomes will take what the defense gives him and not force the ball to his WRs if they aren’t open.
I’ll also fade Brandon Aiyuk this week. I don’t love the matchup against the Bucs, and don’t trust his new QB to spread that much passing volume to the WRs.
Two more Fades for you: DPJ at the Bengals, and D. Johnson vs. the Ravens. Johnson STILL has 0 TDs on the season, and is averaging less than 50 yards per game. It’s not happening, friends.
Hock Will Face His Old Team in Week 14
TE: There is really just one elite option. I’ll start the analysis below Travis Kelce.
Rides and Sleepers:
T.J. Hockenson, please step forward. You’re my TE Ride of the Week. Hock was quiet in Week 13, but there are lots of reasons to like him this week: It’s his first game against his old team, the Lions have allowed the 4th most FPPG to TEs, he’s got 4 top 10 finishes since joining the Vikings, and you know I like this one to be high scoring.
It was nice to see Russell Wilson rediscover Greg Dulcich last week, and the volume should be there again against the Chiefs this week, in a game where the Broncos will likely be without Courtland Sutton and figure to be playing catch-up. Dulcich is being used as a WR in some sets, which is obviously good news for his target opportunities. The problem, again, is that the Broncos don’t score TDs, but maybe this is the week. Yeah, it probably isn’t, but Dulcich is still a decent play at a weak position.
I’ll ride Hunter Henry at the Cardinals. He’s been up and down this year, and mostly down. He was my TE Fade of the Week last week and didn’t disappoint. But this matchup is too good to pass up. The Cardinals have allowed the most catches, yards, TDs, and FPPG to TEs this season. That’s a lot of “mosts”.
Let’s also fire up Gerald Everett at home against Miami. The Dolphins have allowed the third most FPPG to the TE position, and I think Everett will be an important piece of the offensive game plan for the Chargers this week.
C. Okonkwo is my TE Sleeper of the Week. He’s come on in recent weeks, with 10 targets over his last 2 games. With Treylon Burks iffy for this one, I think he’s got sneaky breakout potential.
Two more TE sleepers for you to consider if you’re stuck at the position: Cade Otton at the 49ers, and Mike Gesicki at the Chargers.
Fades:
Dawson Knox is my TE Fade of the Week. With so many options on this offense, Knox has been the odd man out more often than not. He’s only been targeted 3 times over the last 2 games. The Jets aren’t a good matchup, and Knox is very hard to trust right now.
I’ll fade Tyler Conklin in the same game. The Bills are one of 2 teams that haven’t allowed a TE to score a TD all year (the other is the Jets, see above), and they’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to TEs.
A few more fades for you this week: Tyler Higbee vs. the Raiders (despite the very good matchup), and Jordan Akins at Dallas (a terrible matchup).
PK & D/ST: See the Week 14 Waiver Wire column for this week’s top streaming options: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-14 .
Good luck to all this week!
DH
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