Fantasy Football ‘23: Sleeping Beauties
Sam Howell - The Secret is Out
(Published August 26, 2023)
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A lot of season-long redraft leagues (many of them “Home Leagues”) are holding drafts this weekend or this coming week. The big moment is here! Bread-and-butter Home Leagues are still the backbone of the fantasy game, and crushing your home league draft doesn't just happen in the early and middle rounds. What you do with your last handful of picks in the late rounds can really matter, and I’m not talking about kickers and DSTs.
Today I’m giving you a handful of sleepers to keep your eye on. What is a sleeper? For me it’s a player who’s likely to be available late in drafts (or who might not even get drafted), and who brings an upside opportunity that could translate into a meaningful contribution in fantasy this year. For this exercise, I’m only going to list RBs and WRs whose current Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) is lower than 135, and QBs and TEs (the “onesie” positions, and this article is geared towards 1-QB leagues) whose ECR is lower than 160. In other words, these are players who will often be available after the 11th and 13th rounds, respectively, or who you can take for $1-2 at the end of your auction draft. You definitely should have some sleepers in mind when your draft hits the point that most of your leaguemates are cracking their 5th beer, or thinking about the big work presentation they need to make next week.
I’m using ECR for this exercise because I think it’s a decent reflection of what you’re going to find in an actual Home League draft. Average Draft Position (ADP) varies widely across sites and can factor in various types of league formats, mock drafts, etc.
OK, let’s do it. Here are some very cheaply priced players who bring the kind of upside you want with your dart throws.
*****OTHER DRAFT RESOURCES: Check out my positional breakdowns with rankings and tiers, my overall Top 100, and players to target/avoid:
Don’t Sleep on Purdy in Year 2
SLEEPERS
QB
Note - Matthew Stafford has an ECR of 157 (QB20) and Kenny Pickett, 160 (QB21), so that gives you an idea of the cutoff at this position).
B. Purdy (ECR: 169),
R. Tannehill (ECR: 199)
S. Howell (ECR, 203)
K. Murray (ECR 204)
I like all of these QBs as backups with upside in a 1QB league. I wrote about a couple of these guys in my players to target column, but the point here is that they're all going very late in drafts and have nice upside as productive starters. I’ve been on Howell all preseason but I think the secret is out on him, and I expect his ECR and ADP to keep rising through draft season. He can really run, which gives him a nice floor, and has good weapons. Tannehill has been a top 10 QB as recently as a few years ago, and has better weapons this season. Purdy was insanely efficient last year, and gets to play in a favorable system with an elite quartet of skill position players. The Trey Lance trade only solidifies his status. I’m lowest on Murray here, because I have no idea if or when he’ll actually play, plus I expect the Cardinals to be the worst team in the NFL. But if you can get him at this price he’s worth the low-cost gamble.
RB (cutoff: Tank Bigsby, ECR: 135, RB48)
D. Singletary (ECR: 145)
R. Johnson (ECR: 155)
G. Edwards (ECR: 168)
T. Spears (ECR: 176)
T. Chandler (ECR: 240)
D. Vaughn (ECR: 264)
E. Hull (ECR: 283)
This is a fairly long list, and I could have added a few more names. RB is definitely a position you want to hammer at the end of drafts. Every year, plenty of RBs get hurt or lose their starting role, and backups emerge and suddenly become fantasy viable. It’s hard to know which backups will get those opportunities. With that said, I like the upside of all of these guys, either because of an uncertain backfield in front of them, or a belief that they’ll see more work than people are expecting. Five of them are rookies, and in recent years, we’ve seen several unheralded rookies make big splashes in fantasy (think James Robinson and Elijah Mitchell). For some of them, like Johnson and Chandler in particular, it may take a while for them to carve out a role or see opportunities. I have no idea what is going to happen with Jonathan Taylor, but Hull has had a very good preseason and should be on your waiver wire watch list if he goes undrafted.
Keep an Eye on Mims
WR (cutoff: Zay Jones, ECR: 134, WR58)
M. Gallup (ECR: 148)
D.J. Chark (ECR: 149)
D. Peoples-Jones (ECR: 156)
M. Mims, Jr. (ECR: 173)
R. Rice (ECR: 177)
MVS (ECR: 174)
P. Campbell (ECR: 186)
Honestly, I could just list all of the KC WRs here. I have no idea how that receiver group is going to shake out other than that I think MVS will get the most snaps and run the most routes, and given who the QB and HC are, he’s worth a dart throw. I didn’t even list Justyn Ross, but if he makes the team, keep him on your waivers speed dial. Mims has been rising of late with all of the WR injuries in Denver but I also think he’s talented and that his deep speed could work with the Russ Wilson skillset. DPJ is coming off the best season of his career, and the consensus seems to be that the addition of Elijah Moore will make him irrelevant this season. I’m not so sure, and love grabbing him well into the double digit rounds. The NYG WR rotation and pecking order is as uncertain as KC’s, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Campbell will carve out a decent role in what should be a more pass-happy offense this year.
TE (cutoff: Sam LaPorta (ECR: 153, TE 19)
H. Henry (ECR: 180)
J. Ferguson (ECR: 218)
T. Conklin (ECR: 264)
I may have made the cutoff too low for the TEs. LaPorta, Gerald Everett, and Juwan Johnson all have an ECR somewhere around 150 and I like all 3 to deliver at that price. Are they sleepers? We could argue about that, but I made the rules! The Cowboys always target their TEs plenty and I think Ferguson should get the lion’s share of that. Conklin is going undrafted but has some nice upside with Aaron Rodgers coming to town.
Don’t sleep on the guys listed in this column. That’s that - good luck with your drafts!
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DH
