Fantasy Football ‘23: QB Tiers and Rankings
Some Guys Wear Their Ranking On Their Shirt
(Originally Published July 8, 2023, UPDATED August 20, 2023)
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Welcome, readers. Today I’m going to talk about the most important position in all of the 4 major sports, and a position that’s growing in importance in fantasy football. Yup, I’m going to dive into the QBs, and reveal my first set of 2023 rankings and tiers. As more and more fantasy leagues make the smart move to a Superflex (SF) format, where you can start a second QB in a flex spot every week, it’s more important than ever to have a good handle on the position that dominates the early rounds of a SF draft. See this link for more on why your league should seriously consider a SF format, if it hasn’t already made the move: quick-fixes-to-make-your-fantasy-league-better .
For those who read my kickoff column this year, you know that I’m rethinking the “wait on QB” strategy in 1-QB leagues, mainly because of the differentiation you can get from a handful of elite options. See this link for more on that: Column: the-kickoff.
QB is by far the highest scoring position in fantasy. So, whether you’re in a 1-QB league or a SF, the position matters. It just matters a lot more in a SF because the SF creates some much-needed position scarcity.
I’ve organized the QBs into tiers, as I do at every position. You should do the same. I’ve written about this before and to save space I won’t repeat it all here - here is a link to a discussion on the importance of using tiers for your draft board: 5-powerful-drafting-concepts . In a nutshell, everyone wants the best players, and a tiered approach allows fantasy managers to have a great view of ranges of players who can be expected to have similar fantasy production, where the drop-offs are, and how many players in a range remain available at any given time. Tiers really help when position runs come, and all in all they make for more effective drafting.
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Other Pigskin Papers rankings are here: OverallTtop-100 ; RB-tiers-and-rankings ; WR-tiers-and-rankings ; TE-tiers-and-rankings. All rankings are being updated this week.
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One last thing - this isn’t a science. While Kirk Cousins was ranked just outside the top 10 last preseason, Danny Dimes, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith were all ranked lower, with Geno somewhere in the 20s. You know where this is going - all 4 of those guys finished the season between QB5 (Geno) and QB10 (Goff), and were great values. Over the course of a season QBs get hurt, get benched, lose weapons, get bad line play, and more, and seasons get derailed. At the same time, other QBs have it all fall into place and outperform expectations. I will make just one guarantee - my top 10 ranked QBs listed below will not be this year’s top 10 when all is said and done. Guys ranked in the teens and even 20s are going to crash the party - they always do.
Allen: A Top-2 QB For 3 Years “Running”
Pigskin Papers QB Rankings, 2023
TIER I (the Super-Studs)
J. Hurts
J. Allen
P. Mahomes
Commentary: These 3 no-brainers are clearly the top tier. Mahomes has finished as the QB1 twice in the last 5 years, and is a lock for massive passing totals. He runs less than some of the other top fantasy options, including Allen and Hurts, but still puts up elite production. I don’t love the WR room in KC, which is something the team didn’t address this off-season. For now, I have Mahomes at #3. Allen has finished as the QB1 or QB2 each of the last 3 seasons, and unlike the other 2, hasn’t missed any games. The Bills want him to run less, but it’s a big part of what makes that offense so effective and I’ll believe it when I see it. Hurts (QB1 on a PPG basis last year) put up ridiculous rushing totals last season and is only going to get better as a passer, where he has great weapons. They didn’t outlaw the tush push - he’ll again be a goal-line monster and he’s my QB1 this year.
Lawrence: Ready to Make the Leap?
TIER II (Solid QB1s)
4. L. Jackson
5. J. Herbert
6. J. Burrow
7. J. Fields
8. T. Lawrence
Commentary - These 5 QBs have a lot in common. For one thing, they’re all young, meaning they should still be ascending. None are older than 26. They’re all at least somewhat mobile, and to varying degrees, have rushing upside which is huge for fantasy. Fields and Jackson in particular have the kind of rushing ability that could land them as the QB1 when all is said and done. Fields was the QB1 over a 5 week stretch late in the 2022 season, and Jackson finished as the QB1 in his 2019 MVP season. All 5 QBs in this tier have good weapons around them, and any of them can realistically finish as a top 5 QB this year. Herbert and Burrow should both be among the league leaders in attempts and yards - Herbert was not 100% for most of last year and with his line healthier and one more shiny new weapon at WR, he’s a great bounceback candidate who could easily outperform his ADP. Lawrence took a big step up last year, and the Jags brought in another big weapon in Calvin Ridley, which gives Lawrence plenty of great options.
Can Geno Do It Again?
TIER III (Borderline QB 1s/High-End QB 2s)
9. D. Prescott
10. T. Tagovailoa
11. K. Cousins
12. G. Smith
13. D. Jones
14. D. Watson
15. A. Rodgers
16. J. Goff
Commentary - If you do decide to wait on QB in a 1-QB league, any of these veteran QBs should work, and they’ll be coveted by many drafters as high-end second QBs in a SF. Honestly, you could rank this group in almost any order, and I’d buy it. Cousins is as consistent as they come. From 2020-2022 he finished as the QB11, QB11, and QB7, and he’s stayed on the field. Watson probably has the widest range of possible outcomes in the group. Before his near 2 year absence from the game due to personal conduct matters, he had 3 straight finishes as the QB4 or 5. He looked very rusty in this return last season, but still, he’s a bounceback candidate. Aaron Rodgers is another who could easily beat his current ranking. Rodgers finished as the QB13 last season, but he was the league MVP and a top 6 fantasy QB in each of the 2 years before that. He’s going to turn 40 this season while also experiencing his first change of scenery, but we just saw Tom Brady put up big passing numbers on a new team well past age 40. Jones and Geno were both big surprises last season and now we’ll find out if it was a fluke. Geno has great WR weapons - a huge plus. Jones has the most rushing upside in this tier, and it was rushing that made him a top 10 QB last year. This group is pretty safe, with one exception. Tua has missed games in each of his 3 seasons, on top of some serious injuries in college, and his concussion issues from 2022 are a major concern going forward. He’s got elite receiving weapons, is in a very creative offense, and put up solid QB1 numbers when healthy last season. There’s real upside at his ADP. But given the risk, if you draft him, consider taking a strong backup and especially in a SF league.
All Aboard the AR Hype Train
TIER IV (QB2s)
17. R. Wilson
18. A. Richardson (R)
19. M. Stafford
20. D. Carr
21. B. Purdy
22. K. Pickett
23. K. Murray
24. J. Love
25. R. Tannehill
Commentary - This group is a mixed bag of unproven youngsters and older vets, plus Kyler Murray who when healthy has the skillset to be a top-10 option. I just don’t know how much Murray will play this year, and if Arizona will be competitive enough for it to matter. Some of these players will be taken as QB2s in a SF, or maybe even QB3s. All eyes are on Russ Wilson as he attempts to return to fantasy relevance under new HC Sean Payton. If Russ burned you last year, I can understand a reluctance to go there again. Richardson is a sexy pick because of his rushing upside, and especially with former Eagles’ OC Shane Steichen taking over as the Colts’ new HC. If you look at history, I think it might be a year before we see him as a viable starter in fantasy. It’s rare for rookie QBs to be worthwhile fantasy starters right away. Still, with the tantalizing rushing ability he brings, Richardson could be the rare exception, and for that reason you’ll likely have to overpay to get him - some manager in your league will snatch him well before QB18.
Purdy Looks to Build on 2022 - But Will He Start?
TIER V (Fantasy Backups)
26. S. Howell
27. J. Garoppolo
28. M. Jones
29. B. Young (R)
30. C. Stroud (R)
31. D. Ridder
32. B. Mayfield
33. K. Trask
34. T. Lance
35. J. Brissett
36. S. Darnold
Commentary - Just about all of these players should come off the board eventually in SF drafts (trust me, you want 3 QBs), but only a few will get taken as backups in 1-QB drafts. Most will live on the waiver wire as streaming options, or more if they start to produce. A lot of the QBs in this group are rookies or second year guys who didn’t play much as rookies. See what I wrote above about rookie QBs - I wouldn't expect too much from Young or Stroud. Question: Why are there 2 49ers QBs in this tier, plus Purdy in the prior tier? Answer: Kyle freaking Shanahan.
DH
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