Fantasy Football ‘22: Players That Are Hard to Rank

Have We Already Seen the Best of Saquon Barkley?

(Published July 7, 2022)

A few days ago I put together my first full set of player rankings for the 2022 season, and a handful of players gave me fits. I struggled to rank these players because of the wide range of their possible outcomes this season. If a player in this group ends up at the high end of what can reasonably be expected, he could be a league-winner at the price where you’d be able to get him. On the opposite end, they’re all early to mid round players which means that if you take one and he comes up snake eyes, he could be an anchor that drags down the boat that is your fantasy team.

The reasons for the wide range of outcomes vary from player to player, and as training camp and the preseason unfold, the task of handicapping the 2022 season for some or all of them might get a little easier. But for now, these are the players that had me scratching my head as I tried to put together rankings, and I’ll explain why in a minute. Note - I’m not going to talk about players like Christian McCaffrey, Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Chris Godwin, whose potential 2022 performance also has a wide range of outcomes, but those outcomes are mainly dependent on one factor: them being on the field. Those guys are also tough to rank at the moment.

So without further ado, here is my current list of head-scratch players for 2022. 

Can Mahomes Help This Man Get His JuJu Back?

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Current Expert Consensus Ranking in Half PPR (ECR): 33; Current Pigskin Papers Ranking in Half PPR (PP): 29.

This offseason saw as much movement of big-name WRs as we’ve ever seen, and I’ll delve into the WRs who are on new teams in a future article. Of the group, the one that perplexes me the most is JuJu and I feel like I’ve got him either 10 spots too low or 20 spots too high. JuJu is only 25, has a 111 catch, 1,400 yard season on his resume, and after playing the last few seasons with a QB with failing arm strength and other rapidly declining skills, he joins the Chiefs where he’ll be catching passes from a superstar in Patrick Mahomes, in an Andy Reid offense. That’s quite the upgrade and there’s a lot to like right there - and that’s before you factor in that Tyreek Hill is gone. In 2021, Hill ranked 3rd in the NFL in catches (111) and 7th in targets (159), and he led the Chiefs with a 25% target share. Hill was a centerpiece of one of the league’s most potent offenses, and there’s a big hole to fill. This all sounds great for the former Steeler, right? He walks into a golden opportunity to claim a big target share from one of the very best QBs on the planet, in what should be an elite offense. Well, not so fast. JuJu only played in 5 games last year before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, and did next to nothing (15 catches, 129 yards, 0 TDs) when he was on the field. He hasn’t gone over 900 yards in any of the past 3 seasons, and I just can’t shake the comparison to Sammy Watkins, who also came to the Chiefs at age 25 and proceeded to have a mostly forgettable season. Of course, he was competing with both Hill and Kelce for targets, and Hill is now gone. But the Chiefs also brought in MVS this offseason, Mecole Hardman is still there, and they drafted Skyy Moore in the second round. Moore is probably best suited to operate mostly from the slot, as is JuJu, who’s run more than half of his routes from the slot in every season he’s played. I’m having a hard time projecting JuJu’s exact role, and his snap share and target share. I won’t be that surprised if he finishes the season as a top 15 WR, or if he ends up being a guy who has some big games but who you can’t rely on for steady output.

 
Allen Lazard

ECR: 42; PP: 35

I struggled with Lazard’s ranking for some of the same reasons as JuJu. The big similarity is that the Packers also just traded away their most targeted player, and have an elite QB who’s still going to get his completions, yards, and TDs - the question is how they’ll divvy up that fantasy bounty. Davante Adams has been an absolute target monster in this offense - he leads all NFL players in targets over the last 4 seasons with 614 in 57 games (yes, you read that right), and finished inside the top 3 in targets in each of those 4 seasons. The main differences between JuJu and Lazard is that the 26 year old Lazard hasn’t ever put together a full season of high-end fantasy production, but on the plus side he isn’t changing teams. Lazard is coming off his best season and he set career highs across the board, but still that only amounted to 40-513-8, on 60 targets. The 8 TDs is what’s intriguing. He’s a huge target at 6’5” and Rodgers looked for him often in the red zone down the stretch (8 red zone targets in the final 7 games). Of course, that was after starting TE Robert Tonyan went down and Tonyan had 11 TDs in 2020. With Adams and MVS both gne, the door is open for Lazard to command a big target and red zone share this season. Or not. The Packers brought in the aforementioned Sammy Watkins, and they still have Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers on the roster. Like the Chiefs, the Packers drafted a WR in Round 2 (Christian Watson), and he’s also 6’5”. And finally, Aaron Jones is a big part of the passing game and I won’t be surprised if he leads the team in targets. Green Bay’s passing offense is tough to project right now - other than the QB. 

Saquon Barkley

ECR: 14; PP: 14

It was only 4 years ago that Barkley was the #2 overall pick in the NFL Draft, and was seen as a generational talent. His first 2 seasons bore that out and the expectation was that he’d be a consensus top 5 fantasy pick for years to come. But injuries and other setbacks have blocked that path. Saquon averaged a very impressive 5 YPC as a rookie, and 4.6 YPC in year 2. Last season he averaged just 3.7 YPC. Some of the dropoff since his elite rookie season surely has to do with the overall dysfunction in what has been one of the league’s very worst offenses the past 3 seasons. But that only explains part of it and there’s a very real chance that a string of major injuries has taken its toll and we’ve seen the best we’re ever going to see of Saquon Barkley. Sad, but maybe true. Looking ahead to this season, there’s a wide range of possible outcomes for this 25 year old RB that you can probably get somewhere around the Round 2-3 turn. On the plus side, the O-Line should be better with the addition of top 10 pick OT Evan Neal, Brian Daboll is an upgrade over Joe Judge and Jason Garrett, and if the receivers can finally stay healthy, that should help the entire offense and boost the running game. The Giants are talking about getting Barkley more involved in the passing game (remember - he caught more than 90 balls as a rookie), and they don’t have much talent at the position after him - so the volume and opportunities should be there if he can stay healthy. Put all of it together and it’s not crazy to think that Barkley could return to elite, top-5 status in fantasy. But it’s also a real possibility that he’s lost his explosiveness and is no longer a special back, plus there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to stay on the field.

2020 Playoffs Cam Akers is a Steal, 2021 Playoffs Akers is a Disaster

Cam Akers

ECR: 18; PP: 25

The recovery from the achilles tear that Akers suffered one year ago was remarkable. Nobody expected to see Akers return at any point last year, and maybe he shouldn’t have. He was pretty terrible in the playoffs, averaging just 2.6 YPC and coughing up 2 costly fumbles. He looked slow and tentative, and the O-line wasn’t giving him much help. That line is likely to be worse this year. Meanwhile, Darrell Henderson (who ran with the starting job after Akers went down and was a borderline RB1 for the first 13 weeks of last season) is still around and figures to see a good amount of the work, and the Rams should be pretty pass-heavy. On the flip side, Akers was terrific in the 2020 playoffs and the Rams again profile as a high scoring offense that should be on the field and in the red zone a lot. There’s definitely a scenario where Akers is the bellcow, gets close to 20 touches per game, and ends up as a top 10 RB. Or he could be a guy who hurts you almost any time he’s in your lineup and doesn’t score a TD. The range is wide.

Trey Lance and the 49ers: More Questions Than Answers

The San Francisco 49ers’ Offense

This was initially going to be a paragraph about Trey Lance, but as the refs say, after further review… Lance - who is expected to be the Week 1 starter - is a huge part of why I’m having trouble ranking the entire 49ers offense. I just don’t know what to expect from him. He’s got big fantasy upside because of his running ability. Think Jalen Hurts last season. But let’s not forget that in his 2 starts and other limited game action last year, he looked like he wasn’t ready. He struggled and the entire offense struggled with him. His ECR right now is 13 - just one spot behind two-time reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. That’s crazy, right? And yet there’s a viable path for Lance to be a top 10 QB, if he puts up the kind of huge rushing totals we’ve seen from elite running QBs like Jackson, Murray, Hurts, and Allen. I don’t expect Jimmy G to be on the 49ers this season, but even if he is I don’t think he’ll challenge Lance for the starting job. The franchise is all-in on Lance, and he’s their future. Opportunity isn’t what I’m scared of. I’m scared of Lance struggling again as a passer, which would directly impact the fantasy prospects of the primary pass catchers: Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk.

The RB situation also has some uncertainty. The running ability of Lance and the potential for him to vulture TDs is a negative, and then there’s Kyle Shanahan’s penchant for keeping us guessing with his RB usage. 2021 Sixth round draft pick Elijah Mitchell was the surprise first stringer after Raheem Mostert went down in Week 1, and he dominated carries among the RBs when healthy. But he got banged up multiple times last season and was worn down by the playoffs. He figures to be the lead back again if he can stay on the field, but a balky knee might give him problems this season. Further complicating matters is that Deebo Samuel could see a decent number of carries again. Meanwhile, I’ll reiterate that Shanahan can throw a curveball at any time. The 49ers have Trey Sermon, who they took 3 rounds ahead of Mitchell in 2021, and they added another third round RB (Ty Davis-Price) in the 2022 draft, plus they still have Jeff Wilson. Put it all together and maybe you can see why I had lots of trouble ranking Lance, Mitchell, Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle. This offense could have plenty of fantasy value but it presents a lot more questions than answers right now. 

These are the players that had me scratching my head as I did my first full set of rankings. Some others that weren’t so easy include Kadarius Toney, Devin Singletary, Travis Etienne, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, and the Broncos receivers. But hey - if this was easy, we’d all pick championship teams each year. 

Stay tuned to this space as I’ll have more preseason fantasy content coming soon, and regularly as the summer moves along.

To see more fantasy football and NFL content from David Hartman, visit www.thepigskinpapers.com.
DH