Fantasy Football ‘22 - A First Look at the Rookie RBs

Can Anyone Be This Year’s Najee?

(Published June 10, 2022)

I’ve got a list of names to share with you: Todd Gurley (2015), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Leonard Fournette (2017), Saquon Barkley (2018), Josh Jacobs (2019), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020), and Najee Harris (2021). 

Why am I providing this list of running backs? I’ll tell you. The players listed have a few important things in common: (1) each was a first round pick, (2) each was the first RB selected in the draft that year, (3) each stepped into a good opportunity to dominate RB touches on his team as a rookie, and (4) to varying degrees, each was a solid fantasy producer in his first season. Freshest in our minds is Harris, who was on the very high end of that rookie production. He was a fantasy star last season, finishing as the RB3 in Full PPR and the RB4 in Half. With a final overall average draft position (ADP) just inside the top 20, Harris also provided outstanding value.

The 7-year streak reflected in the list above came to an end this year. The 2022 NFL Draft was the first since 2014 where no RB was taken in the first round. Yes, NFL franchises have changed the way they draft college RBs as the value proposition of the position has decreased. But still, this is a below-average RB class by historical standards, and the expectation for 2022 is that we won’t have any rookie RBs setting the world on fire. This group is very unlikely to produce an RB1 this season, and none figure to be used this year as true 3-down backs barring something very unexpected. You can see that in the current ADPs for redraft leagues. There isn’t a single rookie runner in the top 40 overall players (Rounds 1-3 in 12 team leagues, plus the top of Round 4), and only 2 of them are inside the top 100. So expectations are low. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be doing our homework, and tapping into a few of the rookie backs at the right value points in fantasy drafts for redraft leagues.

My last article dove into the rookie receivers for fantasy. Here it is in case you missed it: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-2022-chasing-chase-a-look-at-the-rookie-wrs . Today, I’m going to tackle the rookie RBs (no pun intended - me trying to tackle any of these guys would be a really bad idea). Running back is a tricky position. Fantasy production is highly dependent on workload, and outside of 15-20 players each year, workloads for RBs - and especially rookies, who have no NFL history - can be very hard to predict. Injuries ravage the position each season, not to mention that RBs can lose touches without much warning for other reasons, like fumbling and missed blocking assignments, or because their coach is named Kyle Shanahan or Bill Belichick. On top of that, unless they get significant targets in the passing game, RBs typically need more touches than other skill position players to score fantasy points. A WR or TE who makes 5 catches in a game is highly likely to score more fantasy points than an RB who gets 5 carries, and if an RB doesn’t get touches in the red zone, his chances of helping your fantasy team take a nosedive. 

A quick look at the top 2 rookie RBs in fantasy last year reveals the extremes of trying to forecast rookie RB production. It was pretty easy to see Harris's big season coming. Not only was he the most talented and complete RB in the 2021 draft class, but he walked into a near-perfect situation: He landed on a good NFL team without an established starter at the position, with a Head Coach that has a long history of riding one lead back, and featuring an aging, weak-armed QB prone to dumping off short passes.

Let’s compare that to the #2 Rookie RB in fantasy last year - Elijah Mitchell of the 49ers, a 6th Round pick from a small program. Mitchell wasn’t even the first RB that the 49ers drafted - that was Ohio State’s Trey Sermon, who they took 3 rounds before Mitchell. Veteran Raheem Mostert began the season as the starting tailback. But in Week 1, Mostert went down and it was Mitchell, not Sermon, who Shanahan tapped to get the bulk of the work. Mitchell rewarded those who nabbed him off the waiver wire after his Week 1 breakout - he missed a few games due to injury and he didn’t catch many passes, but he dominated snaps and carries every time he was in the lineup, and was a solid RB2 when he played. 

Evaluating rookie RBs for fantasy is all about the potential opportunity for a meaningful role and workload, but talent and team fit also matter. With that in mind, let’s break down the Rookie RBs. Here’s how I rank them right now, based on total projected points scored in Half PPR. Again, this is for redraft leagues. ADPs listed are current consensus rankings that will surely change as the summer moves along. I’ll try to update this column before the season starts. I’m also giving you my preliminary thoughts on draft value.

Breece Hall: Looking Good in Green

1. Breece Hall, Jets - Nobody should be surprised to see Hall listed first. He was the first RB taken in the draft, and is a pretty complete back who caught more than 80 passes over a 3 year college career. The Jets are a decent landing spot for him. There’s no incumbent lead back, so Hall should compete for meaningful touches immediately, likely splitting most of the work with second year back Michael Carter. And the Jets offense (and defense) should continue to improve this year. At an overall ADP of 44, Hall is going near the back of the 4th round. I think that’s a fair price for a skilled young player who should see double digit touches most weeks and projects as an RB2 with upside.

Dameon Pierce Looks to Make His Mark in Houston

2. Dameon Pierce, Texans - You might be surprised to see Pierce listed ahead of Kenneth Walker, but I have him here for 2 reasons – I think he has a clearer path to a bigger workload, and I think the Texans will have a better offense and be a better overall team than Seattle. Pierce was underused at Florida, but he’s explosive and averaged close to 6 YPC during his senior season. The main competition for touches figures to be veterans Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack, neither of whom is very dynamic. With an ADP of 161, Pierce is going well into the double digit rounds and at that price, getting an RB who could end up leading his team in carries is an excellent value. I’d take him a round or 2 higher than his ADP.

3. Kenneth Walker, Seahawks - Like Hall, Walker came off the board during the first 10 picks of Round 2. Walker led the FBS in rushing yards as a senior and might be the best pure runner in this class. He landed in Seattle, and the price they paid for him suggests they intend to give him a decent role as a rookie. The main thing that stands between Walker and a potentially huge role in the offense is Rashaad Penny. On the plus side (for Walker), Penny has played in just 37 out of a possible 65 games in his 4 year career. On the minus side, Penny went off at the end of last season - he was the RB1 in Half PPR over the final 7 weeks. Chris Carson also still lurks although he still doesn’t have medical clearance to resume football activities and sadly, his career could be over. As noted above, I’m down on the Seattle offense, mostly because of the uncertain QB situation, plus I think they’re going to be playing from behind most games. Walker only caught 19 passes in 3 years of college football, so it’s hard to envision a big role for him when the team is playing catch-up. At an 8th round price (ADP of 92), I think Walker is an OK value, but I’m not overly excited about him for this season.

Dalvin’s Brother James Can Also Cook

4. James Cook, Bills, Isaiah Spiller, Chargers, and Rachaad White, Bucs - I’m listing these 3 together because I see them as being in pretty similar situations - all should eventually slot in as the #2 RB on their team, and each one is presumably an injury (or other issue) away from getting very meaningful touches on one of the league’s best offenses. I like the opportunity (and talent) of Cook and Spiller considerably more, as do the experts. They’re both going in the round 11 range, while White’s ADP puts him just outside of 16 round drafts. I’d take all of them at ADP or even a little earlier. I’d rather take a flier on White with one of my very last picks than allow him to be on the waiver wire. He could be a surprise lottery ticket.

5. Waiver Wire - As I said above, you never know when opportunity might knock for a running back. Not to beat a dead horse, but I’ll say it again because every season, there are RBs who seemingly come out of nowhere to become big fantasy assets for a stretch. Running backs are constantly getting hurt or benched, and an opportunity for meaningful touches is often just one snap away. Plus, sometimes coaches zag when we expect them to zig. Over the years, we’ve seen too many examples of major surprises, like Elijah Mitchell as discussed above, and Duke Johnson at the end of last season. Reserve running backs who come in and do well when given the chance to start usually get to keep the job at least until the starter returns. I recommend keeping the guys listed below (and R. White if he isn’t drafted) on a Waiver WIre watch list, and paying attention to what’s going on with their teams. Sometimes, there’s no advance warning of a big uptick in usage, and a waiver wire frenzy is unavoidable. Other times, you might be able to see some signs that an uptick is on the horizon, and it’s good to pounce at that moment. I’ll try to highlight that in my weekly Waiver Wire column. 

The Waiver Wire list: Zamir White, Raiders, Pierre Strong, Jr., Patriots, Kyren WIlliams, Rams, Tyrion Davis-Price, 49ers. After last year, I can’t blame you if you throw a dart at Davis-Price at the end of your draft.

DH