Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 10
Stack Your Alpha Lions At the Chargers
(Published November 9, 2023, updated for injuries and weather, Sunday morning November 12, 2023)
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Welcome to Week 10! Is your fantasy team in good position for the second half run? I hope so. Week 9 was rough for fantasy, with 8 rookie QBs prominently involved, and low scores abounding once again. The vast majority of games went under the total. Can NFL offenses make a recovery in Week 10? Well, a lot depends on the overall quality of QB play, which has been an issue all year for multiple teams. Worth noting—the top 2 scoring teams in the NFL (PHI and MIA) are on Bye this week, and so are the Chiefs and Rams. That means that a handful of the most prominent producers in fantasy are off this week. Between injuries and Byes, some of you might be struggling to patch together a serviceable lineup. I’ll try to help.
One thing you’ll notice when you get to the Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is that for this week, I’m backing some of the most disappointing underperformers of the 2023 season, and fading some big name players. That’s how it goes some weeks. So let’s get to it.
****WEEK 10 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: Waiver-wire-week-10 .
Week 9 Stats of the Week:
Every team in the AFC North won in Week 9, while every team in the AFC East lost.
Every team in the AFC North is at least 2 games over .500, and if the season ended today, all 4 would make the playoffs.
3 NFC West teams played in Week 9, and they scored a combined total of 9 points.
Patrick Mahomes has now won games in 4 different countries.
Mahomes has completed a pass to at least 10 different players 6 times this season (a record for the SB era).
Mahomes has 64 games with at least 2 TD passes, tied with Peyton Manning for second best through a player’s first 7 seasons (Dan Marino, 65).
Tua is 11-2 when facing coaches who have won the Super Bowl. Both losses are to Andy Reid’s Chiefs.
HOU 39 - TB 37 was a scorigami.
The Raiders scored more points in the first half vs. the Giants on Sunday (24) than they did for a full game in any of their 7 games coached by Josh McDaiels this season.
The first down totals in SEA@BAL: Bal 29, Sea 6. Net rushing yards: Bal 298, Sea 28.
Lamar Jackson is now 18-1 vs. NFC teams.
The Ravens are allowing a TD on 9% of opponents’ possessions. The last team to have a lower % than that was the 2000 Ravens.
Over their last 3 games, the Ravens have outscored their opponents (DET, ARI, SEA)106-33.
The Steelers have been outgained in all 8 of their games. They’re the first team since yardage tracking began (1933) to do that through 8 games, while still maintaining a winning record.
In total, the Steelers have been outgained by 790 yards. Only the Broncos have a worse mark (830).
The Cardinals ran 48 plays on Sunday, for 58 net yards.
The Jets have scored 8 offensive TDs in 8 games (and they’re 4-4).
9 rookie QBs have started a game through the first 9 weeks of the season. The NFL record for a full season is 9.
IND CB Kenny Moore is the 28th player to record 2 pick-sixes in a game.
Josh Dobbs is the first QB in more than 100 years to score a rushing and passing TD for 2 different teams in the same season.
More Dobbs: his time from being signed to playing in a game: Titans, 8 days, Cardinals, 17 days, Vikings, 5 days.
Even more Dobbs: He’s just the second QB to play in games for 3 different teams in the same calendar year. The other QB on that list is Baker Mayfield, who’s done it 2 different times.
C.J. Stroud’s 470 yards and 5 TDs on Sunday both set new single-game records for a rookie.
Taysom Hill is the first player since Frank Gifford (and the third all-time) to have 10+ career passing, rushing, and receiving TDs.
WEEK 10 BYES: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI
*****SUNDAY INJURY AND WEATHER UPDATE*****
Weather Report: No major trouble spots. It will be a bit windy for SF@JAC and moderately windy for DEN@BUF, with rain possible in both spots (more likely in JAC), which could have a minor impact on the passing and kicking games. Some rain is expected for WAS@SEA, although current forecasts have heavier rain for later Sunday, after the game has ended.
Injury Report: (NOTE: Players on IR are not listed unless they’re eligible to return to a action this week):
OUT: RB: D. Pierce, E. Demercado, K. Miller, WR: J. Jefferson, T. Higgins, N. Collins, Z. Jones, T. Burks, K.J. Osborn, D. Parker, PK: K. Fairbairn
Questionable, Likely to Play: K. Mitchell (active), D. Douglas (active for the early game), J. Downs (also active for the early game), J. Chase (active), R. Woods (active), M. Wilson, T.J. Hockenson (active)
Questionable/GTD: P. Strong (active), C. Samuel, DPJ [and note: M. Thomas was arrested on Friday, but is not currently listed as questionable]
EXPECTED TO RETURN: K. Murray, J. Conner, D. Montgomery, D. Samuel, D. London, and 49ers’ OT Trent Williams
******
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: DAL (27.5) CIN (27.25) BUF (27.25) SEA (26) DET (25.5)
Bottom 5: NYG (11) CLE (15.75) GB (17.25) LV (17.5) CAR (18)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. CLE 3. GB 4. BUF 5. NYG
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. CHI 2. WAS 3. PHI 4. TB 5. LAC
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. TB 3. JAX 4. CLE 5. CLE
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. ARI 4. LV 5. IND
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. HOU 3. BAL 4. CLE 5. LV
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PHI 2. TB 3. WAS 4. LAC 5. PIT
Top 5 vs TE: 1. CLE 2. TEN 3. BAL 4. SF 5. PIT
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. LAR 2. CIN 3. DEN 4. DET 5. HOUR
Week 10 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
INTRO
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a very impressive showing in Week 10. In particular, the Fades of the Week absolutely crushed. Geno Smith (QB29), Tony Pollard (RB28), D.J. Moore (WR63), and Trey McBride (TE27) combined for less than 20 points (Half PPR). You can check my work here: Week 9 Fantasy Preview.
Will Geno Finally Get On Track This Week?
QB:
Elite options - For this week, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert; the analysis starts below those 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Jared Goff (@LAC). Wait, what? Jared is on the road, and the Chargers’ D has been playing better of late. Well, forgive me if I don’t get too excited about them holding Zach Wilson and the Jets to 6 points. They’ve still allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, the Lions are coming off of a Bye, and they should have everyone healthy and ready to go. Plus, playing at the Chargers is barely a road game, for anyone. Fire up road Jared with confidence this week.
Other Rides:
Dak Prescott (vs. NYG). He should probably be listed in the elite group, given that the Cowboys will probably have the ball for 40 minutes and win by at least 2 TDs. The danger here is that he doesn't need to throw, which is what happened when the Cowboys obliterated Big Blue in Week 1. Plus, the Giants are actually pretty decent vs. the pass (5th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs). Still, Dak is red-hot right now and should get his.
Geno Smith (vs. WAS). Look, I know it’s been bad. You could even call it awful. It’s hard for an entire season to be a fluke, but we haven’t seen anything close to the brilliant Geno that shocked the NFL in 2022. If he’s ever going to make it happen this season, it’s got to start this week, at home, against a Commanders’ defense that has yielded the second most FPPG to opposing QBs, and 19 passing TDs. Nobody actually wants to hear any Drew Lock chants, do they?
Justin Fields (vs. CAR). If he plays, fire him up in the Basement Bowl. He should put up some nice numbers. Fun fact: The 2-7 Bears have 1-7 Carolina’s first round pick in 2024, in addition to their own.
Here are 3 QBs ranked outside the Top 10 this week who I think have a good shot to be Top 10 plays: K. Murray (vs. ATL), R. Wilson (@BUF), and B. Mayfield (vs. TEN).
QB Sleeper of the Week: Will Levis (@TB). Levis didn’t throw any TDs in his second start, after lighting it up with 4 of them in his debut. Still, he showed well at Pittsburgh, which is always a tough place to play. He makes for a nice sleeper play this week at the reeling Bucs, who got absolutely torched by another rookie QB last week, and have allowed the 4th most FPPG to opposing QBs.
Other Sleepers:
Josh Dobbs (vs. NO). I don’t love this spot for him, against a very strong defense, and with numerous Vikings banged up. Well, nothing has phased him so far this year and he’s the QB10 on the season. He’ll have a full week to learn everyone’s name and the playbook, and his rushing upside alone should help him to outperform his QB18 ranking for the week.
If you’re in need this week, here are some other lower-end QBs that I think can be serviceable plays this week, and especially as QB2s in a Superflex: T. Heinicke (@ARI), B. Young (@CHI), and G. Minshew (@NE, Germany).
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Lamar Jackson (vs. CLE). Why isn’t Lamar listed among the elites this week? Two reasons: the matchup, and his recent lack of top-end fantasy production despite the Ravens destroying their opponents. If you have Jackson you’re playing him for sure (always start your studs, folks), but temper expectations a bit in what could be a defensive struggle that doesn't produce that many points. Lamar did well at Cleveland earlier this season, but the Browns didn’t have a serviceable QB for that game which tilted the field thanks largely to 3 INTs thrown. Cleveland trails only the Ravens in fewest FPPG allowed to QBs, and Lamar has only cracked 20 fantasy points once in his last 5 starts.
Other Fades:
Deshaun Watson (@BAL). Not only is Watson going not he road to face the single toughest matchup for QBs (see above), he didn’t look particularly good in his return (against a bad defense, at home) and his throwing shoulder is still not 100%. Pass.
Brock Purdy (@JAC). Getting Deebo Samuel back would be big, but there are 2 trends working against Purdy: His own sub-par play over his last 3 starts, and a tough road matchup against a Jaguars’ defense that hasn't allowed an opposing QB to top 20 points in any of the last 3 games.
Jordan Love (@PIT). No thanks. The Steelers aren’t an elite defense, but they can bring pressure and this is a tough road matchup for Love, who hasn’t exactly been lighting it up.
More QBs to avoid, if you’re in need and are looking lower in the rankings (I’ll spare you the obvious names who nobody in their right mind should ever start, like Zach Wilson and Tommy DeVito): A. O’Connell (vs. NYJ), Mac Jones (vs. IND, Germany), and Kenny Pickett (vs. GB).
Joe Will be Mixon It up vs. the Texans
RB:
Elite options - For this week, CMC, Etienne, Breece Hall, and Ekeler; the analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Joe Mixon (vs. HOU). Mixon hasn’t exactly been inspiring this season, but he’s scored in 2 straight and is getting good passing game usage. On top of that, the Bengals are starting to roll, and it’s a favorable matchup at home. The Texans just allowed 20+ fantasy points to Rachaad White, and are once again a bottom 10 defense vs. RBs.
Other Rides:
Jonathan Taylor (@NE, Germany). Zack Moss is still getting more usage than Taylor managers would like, but this is gradually becoming his backfield. This may be the last week that he’s not included in the “Elite” group. The Pats are an OK matchup, and Taylor is starting to hit his stride.
Tony Pollard (vs. NYG). It’s been downright ugly for Pollard, who delivered as my RB Fade of the Week last week. This week, I’ll flip the narrative and happily ride him against the defense that yielded Pollard’s best game this season (21 fantasy points), way back in Week 1. The game script again will favor him this week, and he’ll be a good sell high after he roughs up the Giants again.
David Montgomery (@LAC). Gibbs and Montgomery managers will be watching this game very closely, to see how the usage breaks down in Montgomery’s return. I don’t think this will totally revert to how it was before the injury, but I still like Montgomery more due to his likely early down and goal-line usage, plus the Chargers are a decent matchup. The hope is that this backfield ends up being like Zeke and Pollard last year—a situation where 2 RBs from one team are every-week starts. We’ll see.
D’Onta Foreman (vs. CAR). This just in, Khalil Herbert is NOT expected to play on Thursday night. That bumps up Foreman significantly, in a great matchup against a Carolina defense that’s allowed the second most FPPG to RBs, and the most rushing TDs (12) and total TDs (15) to the position.
Here are some more RBs in the RB2 range (ranked 13-28) who I think are decent upside plays this week: R. Stevenson (vs. IND, Germany), C. Hubbard (@CHI), B. Robinson, Jr. (@SEA), and Jav. Williams (@BUF).
RB Sleeper of the Week: T. Allgeier(@ARI). He’s continuing to get double digit carries most weeks, and with Arizona’s bad defense on tap (3rd most FPPG allowed to RBs, and 9 rushing TDs allowed to the position so far), I think he’s a sneaky Flex play this week.
Other Sleepers:
Here are a few more RBs ranked outside the Top 28 who I think are viable this week, if you need them: J. Warren (vs. GB), M. Sanders (@CHI) and A. Gibson (@SEA).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Saquon Barkley (@DAL). He’s a great back and he’ll get plenty of volume including multiple passing game targets, but this is a very scary road spot for the reeling Giants. Big Blue is basically playing without a QB, has an implied total of 11, and is going up against a formidable defense that already shut them out once this season, when Jones was healthy and the Giants were at home. I don’t think they’ll score a TD this week, and I think getting to 10-12 Half PPR points is going to be a chore for SQB.
Other Fades:
HOU RBs. This team just can’t run the ball, and the sledding will be tough against the Bengals. [Update: D. Pierce is OUT. That doesn’t change my analysis.]
James Cook (vs. DEN). On paper, this is a great matchup. Denver’s defense has improved since it allowed 8 RB TDs in the Miami game (which is going to make the Broncos look like the best RB matchup for the entire season), but it’s still a defense you want to start RBs against. The problem here is the usage and production. Cook has been held below 8 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 outings, and for the season he’s only been on the field for 20% of snaps inside the 5. With Josh Allen, Lat Murray, and now Lenny Fournette all in the rushing mix, he’s awfully hard to count on for TDs or enough usage to be your RB2.
Gus Edwards (vs. CLE). He’s been great the past 3 weeks. How great? He’s the RB1 over that stretch! So you’re riding the hot hand if you have him. I’m concerned about the matchup (the Browns allow the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs and have allowed just 2 rushing TDs to backs all year), and the potential of a 3-man committee.
More Fades: Z. Moss (@NE), K. Hunt (@BAL) and R. Johnson (vs. CAR).
Nobody is Happier to See Kyler Return than Fellow Sooner Hollywood
WR:
Elite options - For this week, Chase (if he plays), Diggs, and Lamb; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Amon-Ra St Brown (@LAC). Yup, I’m stacking my QB and WR Rides of the Week. The Chargers are no longer the very worst defense vs. the pass, but they’re still in the running. They’ve allowed the 4th most FPPG to WRs, and WR1s have torched them all season. ARSB should see plenty of volume in what’s likely to be a higher scoring game.
Other Rides:
Adam Thielen (@CHI). He’s coming off of his worst game (5-29) since Week 1, but I like a big rebound to his normal target-hog self this week. D.J. Chark is likely going to miss the Thursday night game, and the Bears are a decent matchup.
D.K. Metcalf (vs. WAS). Metcalf is very high on the list of most disappointing players of 2023. I feel your pain if he’s on your roster. He’s—get this—the WR43 on the season and hasn't broken 15 fantasy points in a game. I think that ends with a bang this week. You know I’m high on Geno, and Metcalf is way, way overdue. Enter the Commanders, who’ve allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, and the second most TDs (12). Could it be Lockett or JSN? Sure, and they’re both decent plays too this week, but I’ll put my chips on the big guy.
Here are 5 more WRs ranked as lower-end WR1s or WR2s this week who jump out at me as excellent plays: M. Evans (vs. TEN), C. Olave (@MIN), D. Hopkins (@TB), D.J. Moore (vs. CAR), and C. Kirk (vs. SF). [Thursday night UPDATE: With Justin Fields OUT, I’m more neutral on Moore].
WR Sleeper of the Week: Marquise Brown (vs. ATL). Welcome back, Kyler Murray. Perhaps nobody is happier to see Murray than Hollywood, who was hot early in the season before the wheels fell off for the Cardinals. The matchup is a decent one, and Hollywood should thrive this week, in a winnable game.
Other Sleepers:
Josh Dotson (@SEA). He’s got TDs in 2 straight games, and at least 8 targets in 3 straight. With Curtis Samuel likely to miss another game, Dotson should continue seeing good opportunities (including red zone looks) on a team that throws as much as just about anyone.
Demario Douglas (vs. IND, Germany). Douglas has been a strong waiver wire recommendation and a sleeper for me for 2 straight weeks. He’s the #1 passing game option for New England right now, and while that’s not exactly a great thing to be, he’s a good short area target with YAC potential. I like him s a WR3 or Flex week in and week out, on a team that’s going to be trailing more often than not.
Here are a few more WR's ranked outside of the Top 30 this week who I think you can start, if needed: JSN (vs. WAS), T. Boyd (vs. HOU, if Chase is inactive or limited), D. Mooney (vs. CAR), and R. Shahid (@MIN).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Davante Adams (vs. NYJ). The Jets are the single worst matchup for WRs - they’ve allowed the fewest receiving yards and FPPG to WRs, and just one TD to the position all season. I know Keenan Allen fared decently well on Monday night, but he has Justin Herbert getting him the ball, not a rookie making his second start. Better days are ahead, and I can’t blame you for starting Adams, but I don’t like his prospects this week.
Other Fades:
Zay Flowers (vs. CLE). Flowers has been pretty inconsistent, and this matchup is just about as bad as it gets (other than the Jets). The Browns have yielded the fewest catches to WRs, and the 4th fewest FPPG.
George Pickens (vs. GB). Diontae Johnson returned to the lineup, and just like that, Pickens vanished. The Packers aren’t a good matchup (8th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs), and it’s really hard to trust Pickens at this point.
Giants WRs (@DAL). Duh.
A few more WRs I’d prefer to avoid this week: J. Jeudy (@BUF), T. Dell (@CIN), and C. Watson (@PIT).
Kincaid is Making His Mark
TE:
Elite option - For this week, Andrews, LaPorta, and Hockenson; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Taysom Hill (@MIN). When something keeps hitting, I keep running it back. Guess who’s the TE1 over the last 3 weeks? Travis Kelce? Nope. Mark Andrews? Nope. Want another guess? OK, you know the answer. It’s the Swiss army knife, who’s doing all-purpose things that haven’t been done since Frank Gifford did them in the 50s. Seriously—what can’t this guy do??? Hill is the Saints’ goal-line QB. That alone makes him a must-start, every single week.
Other Rides:
Dalton Kincaid (vs. DEN). Nothing complicated here. The usage the last 2 weeks is off the charts, and there’s no reason to expect it to abate too much with Knox out, and no other reliable options after Diggs and Davis.
Cole Kmet (vs. CAR). The expected return of Fields is good news for the entire offense. Kmet is ranked outside the Top 10 this week and for me that’s too low. [Thursday night UPDATE - with Fields OUT, I’m more neutral on Kmet].
Trey McBride (vs. ATL). I like him to bounce back from last week’s predictable near goose-egg (well, I predicted it, so there). Competency should return to the QB position this week, and a decent matchup is on tap. If Michael Wilson is out again, the target share should be excellent.
Dalton Schultz (@CIN). Two converging trends here: Schultz is coming off his best game of the season, and the Bengals have allowed the second most FPPG to TEs. I think Stroud may have a hard time getting the ball to his WRs, and Schultz should be a good outlet for him in what’s likely to be a catch-up game script.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Jonnu Smith (@ARI), The TE10 on the season is ranked outside the top 15 this week. That seems odd. I’ve given up on trying to figure out what Arthur Smith is up to. He loves finding ways to get the ball to Jonnu, including near the goal line, and that goes back to their time together with the Titans. At a weak position, Smith continues to be worth starting.
Other Sleepers:
Irv Smith (vs. HOU). If you’re desperate, Smith is a decent long-shot play. He isn’t a big part of the CIN passing game, but he did score last week and has seen 4 targets each of the last 2 weeks. Plus, Higgins is out, and on top of that Chase may be limited or even out this week which opens the door for more looks. The Texans allow the 4th most FPPG to TEs, so it’s a nice matchup too.
Other sleepers to consider, if you’re in need: L. Thomas (@SEA) and G. Everett (vs. DET, who allow the 3rd most PFFG to TEs).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: David Njoku (@BAL). He’s scored in 2 straight games, which is great. His team is at the Ravens this week, which is terrible. They’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to TEs, and just one TD. Pass.
Other Fades:
Cade Otton (vs. TEN). If you want to chase his 2-TD performance from last week, do so at your own risk. I won’t be joining you. The Titans have allowed the fewest FPPG to TEs, and they’re the only defense that has yet to allow a TE to score. Kevin Byard was a factor in that until 2 weeks ago, but it’s still a hard pass for me.
More Fades: L. Musgrave (@PIT) and M. Mayer (vs. NYJ).
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 10 Waiver Wire column: Waiver-wire-week-10 .
That’s a wrap! Good luck to all in Week 10.
DH
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire column posts each Monday night. Please bookmark the site and come back often. We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
